Oral evidence: Cuba, HC 719
Oral evidence, 19 October 2026.
Witnesses
Dr Christopher Sabatini, Dr Katrin Hansing, Ruaridh Nicoll and Lena Savelli.
Chair
This is a one-off sitting on the situation in Cuba. We are very grateful to have three witnesses with us; another will arrive a little later. Could the witnesses introduce themselves, starting with Lena Savelli?
Lena Savelli
Good afternoon. My name is Lena Savelli. I am the World Food Programme regional director for Latin America and the Caribbean.
Dr Hansing
Good afternoon. I am Katrin Hansing. I am based in Washington DC at the moment. I am a professor of anthropology at the City University of New York and I am an expert on Cuba. I have worked on Cuba and Cuban society for the last 30 years.
Ruaridh Nicoll
Hi, I am Ruaridh Nicoll. I’m the Guardian’s correspondent in Cuba, although I write for a variety of other newspapers as well.
Chair
We are going to start with Fleur, who has some questions about the current situation in Cuba.
Fleur Anderson
The Foreign Affairs Committee has been following very closely the situation in Cuba, and especially the impact on the citizens of Cuba, so we are really delighted that you could come to this sitting and that it is public so that more will be known—I hope—by the British people about what is happening in Cuba right now. I am Fleur, a Labour member of the Foreign Affairs Committee, and my questions are for Ruaridh and Katrin. What is the current situation? How stable is the current Cuban Government? Are there signs of internal political fracturing? What are the most plausible scenarios over the next 12 months—what is most likely to happen?
Ruaridh Nicoll
Your questions are straightforward, but do you want me to talk a little bit about the current situation on the streets for people in Cuba? Would that be helpful?
Fleur Anderson
Yes, very.
Chair
I believe you are living in Havana at the moment, so you have that insight. We are very interested to know what the short-term future is for Cuba, and what is happening on the streets is an important part of that, I imagine. We will be asking detailed questions about the humanitarian situation as well—don’t worry, we will have an opportunity to talk about it all—but I suppose we are really beginning with the politics.
Ruaridh Nicoll
Okay. It’s very difficult to talk without the politics, because about 40% of the Cuban population now have absolutely nothing. They are often elderly, they have no one abroad and they are trying to live on pensions or state salaries reduced by hyperinflation to the equivalent of £5 a month. I see them on the street all the time. Some of them are trying to maintain their dignity—they try to sell you knick-knacks from their houses—or they just straightforwardly beg or go through the huge piles of rubbish that have appeared. Politically, these are often the people who built the revolution, having listened to Che Guevara’s great plea—injunction—to give up their personal ambitions in return for cradle-to-grave healthcare, work, a roof over their heads and a ration of food. But the bodegas where they used to get those rations of rice, cooking oil, chicken and sugar have emptied. These people are being forgotten. They are relying on a very faltering family assistance system and church food banks. Another 40% or so get money from family abroad, and 20% of the population either work for or own MIPYMEs—micro, small and medium-sized enterprises, which in 2021 were allowed by the Government, who were dealing with hyperinflation and trying to change the economy. Those people—the owners—are becoming incredibly rich. There are a lot of them. I have seen my first Range Rover and my first Porsche, and you see a lot of shiny Dodge Rams and BMWs. They support, with their workers, about 20% of the population. They import a lot of food, but they also do a lot of other things—for example, they now organise intercity transport, and companies are opening up that look after the elderly. But the 40% are in real trouble. The Government, who are struggling under this eight or nine-month-old oil blockade, struggle to do anything for them. I have covered countries all across the world, and the Cuban Government remain the most opaque Government I have ever dealt with. After nine years of living here full time, if anyone tells me—whether it be a diplomat, a businessperson or a journalist—that they know what is happening within the Government, I would be very wary of believing them. However, the Government are clearly now quite factional. There have been huge attempts by the US Government to break them open, and other people support those super-rich new MIPYMEs—
Chair
Sorry to interrupt, but what does MIPYME mean?
Ruaridh Nicoll
MIPYMEs is the Spanish for small to medium-sized enterprises, small businesses that have grown very large—
Chair
So a bit of capitalism was injected in a few years ago.
Ruaridh Nicoll
No—as a mainland European diplomat said to me, at the moment we are in perestroika without glasnost. There is very little transparency in what is going on. I should also mention that 2 million people have moved abroad since 2021. I have a four-year-old son, who is half Cuban, and the old people approach him on the street—they are like zombies—because they are aching for children. Their own are abroad and, to quote a friend, they are watching their grandchildren grow up on screen, often speaking another language. Doctors are on state salaries, so if you go to a hospital, you have to take a present—a regalito—to get you through the door. Most people do not feel bad about that, because they understand the situation. The same goes for teachers—you need to start paying teachers. The education system is collapsing. As you know—I am sure many of you have visited Cuba—education used to be paramount, but many people now dismiss it. When you finish school, you face a choice: seven years at university—to train to be a doctor to earn only £5 a month—or go to work for a MIPYME and earn 20 times that immediately. It is a very easy decision. To quote another panellist—Katrin, whom I know well—the feeling is almost anti-intellectual now. There are piles of rubbish everywhere, and communities are beginning to organise. They pay MIPYMEs to get rid of it. My wife’s 95-year-old grandfather has a pile outside his house so high that I can barely get to the door. The flies are terrible. Crime is burgeoning—Cuba used to be one of the safest places anywhere, and in 2022 The Telegraph listed it as the best Caribbean island to visit. That is only a few years ago. I do not want to overstate it—it is not Rio—but muggings and house and car break-ins are commonplace. Last week, the famous singer Ray Fernández was violently attacked outside his house. There are, of course, the blackouts. Last week, a friend in Oriente—at the other end of the island; as you will know, Cuba is the length of Britain—said that people do not even talk about electricity any more, because there is so little of it. It is like any other very poor country, he said, but of course it didn’t used to be like that. The banging of pots and pans, which you may have heard about, has stopped in Havana. I want to talk about one last thing. Water is now so irregular that a new breed of street hawker has appeared selling from big tanks that they push on trolleys. As you can imagine, that is potentially catastrophic. That brings me to the largest fear here, which is disease. The classics are all enjoying a resurgence—dengue, which I am currently recovering from for the second time, Zika, and chikungunya, which means “contorted” in Tanzanian Makonde and is as much fun as it sounds—but now we have waterborne nightmares. Hepatitis A is everywhere, diarrhoea is common, dysentery is about, and I think cholera is an increasing possibility. I wonder whether an outbreak of something that really kills people will bring this hellish year, and potentially this revolution, to an end. I will let Katrin take over on the politics—
Chair
Actually, Rory, given that you have begun with a very powerful testimony, with the agreement of the Committee we will move on to the humanitarian situation, and then come back to the politics afterwards, not least because Lena needs to leave in half an hour.
Fleur Anderson
Katrin, we will come back to you. Lena, what is the current humanitarian situation, what is your access, and what sectors are the most under strain? We heard about the health, education and water impacts. What are the numbers behind it for the World Food Programme? What are you doing and what is the future looking like for the humanitarian programme? Also, where are you getting most of your funding from? Are you getting enough funding from the international community?
Lena Savelli
The World Food Programme has been present in Cuba since 1963. We have an office in Havana and we have people placed in the provinces as well. We are working right now with a programme that has about $35 million a year, and we have so far been able to reach 1.5 million people in 2026. To echo what the previous speaker said, it is clear that the humanitarian situation is worsening. This, of course, is shaped both by long-standing structural challenges and by external pressures—the economic decline, the hyperinflation, which was mentioned, the very severe fuel shortages and the power cuts, which are of course impacting food security. The World Food Programme focuses on all dimensions of food security. On food availability, Cuba normally imports about 80% to 85% of its food, and right now is challenged in doing so. The local production—the domestic production—is of course also constrained. You need fuel to run irrigation systems, to operate tractors and so on, so food is increasingly scarce and increasingly expensive. The social protection system is under pressure, obviously. The libreta system, which used to provide food commodities for the whole population under a universal social protection scheme, is now really moving to targeted assistance only for vulnerable people, as it is not able to provide sufficient food for everybody. When I was there in June, I heard that only rice was being distributed through the libreta system at that time—no oil, no chicken, and none of the other commodities that were mentioned by the previous speaker. This is, of course, hitting those who are the most vulnerable—elderly people who rely on a very small pension of about 4,000 pesos, children, women who are pregnant and breastfeeding, and people with disabilities or chronic illnesses. In July, the authorities had identified around 876,000 vulnerable people that they said were in particular need of support, and 94% of them reported food insecurity and the use of negative coping strategies, meaning that they start cutting down meals, are eating a poorer diet, or start selling off their assets to try to get money, because people are increasingly relying on private markets. Of course, a lot of the food there is out of reach economically for people who rely on state salaries or have pensions. For example, with about 6,000 pesos, which is an average salary, you could buy a carton of eggs and a bottle of oil—for the whole month. That is obviously insufficient for a family. We are also seeing that supply chains are extremely concerned, with containers of food, medicines and other essential goods reportedly stranded in nearby ports and coming into the country on late schedules—
Chair
Sorry to interrupt you, but is the World Food Programme responsible for co-ordinating food coming into the country, or do you send food in directly yourself? What is your direct experience as an organisation of getting food to the country but not being able to distribute it within the country?
Lena Savelli
It is challenging to get the food into the country, even though humanitarian food is exempt from sanctions. Over-compliance with regulations sometimes means that shipping disruptions occur and there are severe delays getting the food in. Once it is in the country, of course you need to distribute it out to the provinces, which is more challenging these days given the fuel shortages. We do continue to operate; like I said, the World Food Programme has already reach 1.5 million people with food assistance this year, and we are also providing fuel and logistic services for other UN agencies and humanitarian organisations in the country to ensure that we reach them. But it is slower, more difficult and more expensive to do so these days.
Chair
Which parts of Cuba are suffering the most from not being able to get food into their region or area?
Lena Savelli
All across the country, the challenges are great. Eastern Cuba is still recovering from Hurricane Melissa last year, which was a terrible blow to people and their food security. It destroyed 200,000-plus homes, schools and health institutions. From what we see in our monitoring, Camagüey and Villa Clara are other areas that we understand are increasingly in need. Like I said, we have people based in the provinces who continue to go out and monitor the work that we do there. Those are some areas we are particularly concerned about. You asked about our support; as I mentioned, the World Food Programme’s programme is about $35 million a year. Right now, we are facing a gap of about $10 million for this year. We have a broad range of partners, including the Republic of Korea, Sweden and the United Kingdom, who supported us with the response to Hurricane Melissa last year—thank you for that—as well as Canada, Russia, Italy, Luxembourg, the European Union ECHO, Spain and many others. They are working with us to get support to the families in need. So we are continuing to operate, but it is more challenging these days given the constraints on both getting the food into the country and distributing it there. For families, the power cuts are also impacting their ability to keep the food safe. Storing food in refrigerators when you have a 50-hour power cut is obviously a health concern. A comment was also made about water being increasingly scarce; that of course has many health implications and impacts food safety. We are seeing families increasingly trying to make food at home; the most recent thing I discussed with my colleagues in Cuba was how they are now starting to make home-made cooking oil. There are also food safety concerns when you are trying to produce food like that at home. I think those were the main questions. In terms of the future, right now we do not see any particular change to the situation in the short term. Unless there is any change in the fuel access and the ability to import food, we expect to see a significant increase in humanitarian need and people needing support. We have been urging partners to use diplomatic channels to support humanitarian exemptions, facilitate humanitarian imports and encourage co-operation. That is aimed at protecting the most vulnerable people—the elderly, the women and the children, as I mentioned earlier. The availability of resources and sufficient funding to cover the $10 million gap that I mentioned is incredibly important, particularly this year because, like many countries in the world, Cuba is already feeling the effects of El Niño, with increasing drought across the country, which of course will also impact domestic food production and hence the food security of the Cuban people. So there is a need to strengthen preparedness and contingency planning in anticipation of the impact of El Niño. One positive thing this year is that the hurricane season has been calmer than last year. We have not had a major incident like Hurricane Melissa, which occurred almost a year ago to the day, and I think the El Niño conditions will keep it like that. But of course the drought and then potentially stronger storms next year is what we are really seeing on the horizon.
Chair
I have heard you say that what the World Food Programme would like from countries—I assume that includes Britain—is assistance to make it easier to get humanitarian aid into Cuba, and to stop the red tape and facilitate the easier movement of aid to the most vulnerable. That is one thing. You said the UK had given assistance to the World Food Programme for Cuba after Hurricane Melissa. Is Britain giving any assistance to the World Food Programme at the moment to assist Cuba? If not, should it?
Lena Savelli
The £1 million of support that we received after Hurricane Melissa last year has been implemented over the past few months. There is an open call for resources to continue to support the people in Cuba, but we received that generous contribution from the UK last year. Like I said, we still have a $10 million gap, so more resources are of course urged from all our partners, not only for the provision of food but to support what the WFP is doing to facilitate logistics services, including the provision of fuel for other agencies, because obviously it is also challenging in the health sector, in water and in sanitation, as we discussed. It is important that we continue to be able to support all the needs of the Cuban population, not just in respect of food.
Chair
We have been joined by Dr Sabatini; thank you very much for coming in. A very powerful picture of the humanitarian situation is being painted for us at the moment. Lena Savelli has to go in 10 minutes or so. We have reordered the questions so that we can incorporate her evidence. Fleur, do you have another question?
Fleur Anderson
Is the World Food Programme able to bring in oil for humanitarian purposes? What change would enable more ability to distribute and use oil for humanitarian purposes? Can there be differentiation, or do you have that already?
Lena Savelli
We are bringing in food, oil, rice and other commodities—
Fleur Anderson
I mean fuel oil. Do you differentiate between fuel coming in for you to use for humanitarian purposes? Or is it all stopped at the moment by the blockade? Could that be changed?
Lena Savelli
We have been able to purchase fuel from private suppliers that have brought it into Cuba so that we are able to use it for humanitarian operations. Like the previous speaker said, in some cases the growing number of private sector actors in Cuba are able to get exemptions to fuel, and we have been able to purchase fuel from them, but it is not regularly available across the country. It is more pricey and more complicated to access this to keep the operations going.
Chair
There is so much to say on the humanitarian situation; may I ask Dr Hansing about it? Also, is it true that the infant mortality rate has doubled in the last few years?
Dr Hansing
Thank you so much for this opportunity; this is a very important conversation. Ruaridh and Lena gave a wonderful on-the-ground overview of the situation, which I would say is no longer a humanitarian crisis, but a disaster. The situation has been going on for a while, but since January this year, when the United States imposed an oil blockade, it has spiralled downwards. The lack of fuel really is what is making daily life so complicated for everybody. We have heard about some vulnerable groups, and I would add that Afro-Cubans in particular—people of African descent in Cuba—are also very affected for historical and structural reasons. Because most of them do not have family abroad, they do not receive remittances, so we need to keep an eye on that group. The crisis—the disaster—that we are facing is for most people an everyday survival situation. The lack of fuel means less or very little access to not just food, but water, public transportation, hospitals and the education system. All the infrastructure that the Cuban state used to provide, usually for free or very subsidised, has imploded—the social and the rest of the infrastructure. Most Cubans are now trying to survive on their own, which is psychologically a huge change. If you have been living your whole life in a country that has provided most services, and you are now in a survival situation and have to figure it out on your own, it is very difficult. Cubans are dealing with what many people in my field call a polycrisis—economic, political and social, but also psychological. It is important to remember how people are doing in all this. Cubans feel abandoned by their own state. Many do not have family abroad, and the elderly population is in a very difficult situation. I will give you an anecdote—this is something that I hear almost every week. Many elderly people have been left by their children and grandchildren, who have emigrated in the last five years. Because of the power cuts, if they want to go to the bathroom at night, they fall, they break their hip and there is no help. That is an everyday situation. There is no public transport; there are no ambulances. It really is a crisis situation. Of course, the central problem is that the United States and Cuba remain locked in a prolonged confrontation. It is really a stalemate situation. There has been talk of dialogue and talks, but we are really in a stalemate. This is contributing every single day to the worsening of the crisis on the ground. The Cuban people on the ground are paying an enormous price for this political deadlock. Both sides—the US and Cuban Governments—are entrenched in their positions, and every day that goes by is a day that more and more Cubans are not only suffering but dying. I cannot emphasise enough how critical the situation is on the ground. We unfortunately do not hear enough about it in the media any more because there is so much else going on in the world, but the situation is really critical, and it can go in different directions. We are at a point now where it is very difficult to know what is going to happen. There are multiple scenarios, none of which is particularly good. That is why humanitarian assistance is critical. We need to bring in aid for most of these vulnerable populations quickly and in a co-ordinated way on an international level. What is happening now is that it is trickling in. Different countries—Mexico, the EU, Canada, Chile and so on—are sending aid in, but it is not co-ordinated. It is dripping in here and there. We then have this massive problem, as Lena explained, around distribution because of the lack of fuel, but also because of the bureaucracy because of the US embargo. We are dealing with a very complicated logistical issue. We really need to address how to quickly organise an international co-ordinated humanitarian effort to get away from individual donors, countries or organisations helping and instead be more co-ordinated and work together, and put pressure on both the US and Cuban Governments to alleviate some of the logistical and bureaucratic obstacles. Regarding your question about infant mortality, we have talked about some data and statistics, but it needs to be recognised that any data coming out of Cuba needs to be taken with a huge grain of salt. There is very little reliable data coming out of Cuba, because it is very difficult to do research in Cuba and the data that the Cuban Government give us is not the most trustworthy. We cannot really compare it to independent data. The data we have is probably underestimated. We are dealing with malnutrition on a large scale. You mentioned infant mortality, and there are numbers out there that suggest it has doubled. Maternal deaths have skyrocketed, particularly since the pandemic and over the last couple of years. There is also extreme poverty. There are conservative estimates that more than 60% of the Cuban population is living in extreme poverty. We have these numbers, but some of the testimonies that we heard put an image to the numbers. I want to highlight that we really do not know how bad the situation is, but it is probably worse than the numbers that we have so far.
Chair
Thank you; that was very powerful. A couple of Members want to ask follow-up questions. I am going to Edward first and then to Sir John.
Edward Morello
Mr Nicoll, I want to follow up with you, on the ground, about some of the issues that have been highlighted in terms of access to fuel. Ms Savelli mentioned that the World Food Programme was able to purchase fuel from some of the SMEs that Mr Nicoll mentioned—the private company providers. There is an interesting report this week in a UK publication that alludes to the fact that the availability of fuel in Cuba is a result of American middleman companies effectively importing because they have exemptions to the sanctions. Is that what is happening on the ground? Is there a grain of truth to that? Is this a case of American exemptions to their own sanctions to allow American companies to make money importing fuel?
Ruaridh Nicoll
Yes, absolutely. There is a lot of fuel being imported from America now, albeit not on a scale that could affect the electricity blackouts, especially as it is designed so as to not get into the hands of the Government. But there is a lot of fuel. A lot of the MIPYMEs are importing container-sized pressurised fuel. There are stories of MIPYMEs taking over the state CUPET—a couple of state CUPET gas stations have now been taken over by MIPYMEs. This is where many people are buying their fuel. You can now get fuel for $2.50 a litre, which is expensive. It is part of the American programme to allow a certain amount in so that the crisis bubbles but does not spin so far out of control that it is no longer handleable. There is also a huge amount of movement by the Cuban Government. You can import cars from the US, and they have far lesser import charges on electric cars, even though there are enormous blackouts. The famous old cars have disappeared, to be replaced by electric tricycles. It is shifting very fast. If you have the money, there is no real issue with fuel at the moment.
Edward Morello
To be clear, the exemptions from American sanctions are only for purchases from America or American companies.
Ruaridh Nicoll
We could talk more generally about this, but I will try not to because I know that we are on time. The American sanctions have pushed out every Canadian, Spanish and British company. They have pushed out Meliá and Iberostar, the big Spanish hotel companies, and Blue Diamond from Canada. They have pushed out Sherritt, the mining company. They have pushed out everybody.
Chair
The public watching this are probably also aware that there are no more flights. There used to be holiday flights to Cuba, and those stopped some time ago.
Ruaridh Nicoll
That is because of fuel. You have to refuel by then. Also, the situation is catastrophic: there are the reports of hepatitis in holiday zones and things like that. I went looking for tourists in Varadero, which is the famous resort. It took me a long time to find any, and they were pretty dodgy tourists. Fuel is a very important thing. There is a fuel blockade, but it is related to the US trying to take control of all supplies into Cuba. However, there is, weirdly, a slackening going on for humanitarian aid. There are now ships: for a while, there were no ships from anywhere other than Miami, but there have been. There has been food. Lena might know more about this, but there is food and medicine coming from Jamaica and from Veracruz in Mexico, via Spain, and other ships have been allowed in. Two fuel ships have been arrested by the US on the way in, so clearly the Government here are trying to find black ships—if that is the right phrase—to bring in.
Edward Morello
Can I come back to the point you were making about foreign companies being forced out of Cuba? To finish your train of thought, are you suggesting that American companies are stepping in to fill the void left by those companies? Is that part of the design of the sanctions?
Ruaridh Nicoll
Yes, clearly. Donald Trump has made it very clear that he wants to open up Cuba for his Cuban American friends in Miami. He has literally said that several times. He has gone a bit quiet on Cuba, probably for a variety of reasons, but when I asked a senior American official why that was, he said, “Well, because it’s summer, Ruaridh.” I said, “Why summer?”, and he said, “He doesn’t go to Mar-a-Lago in summer, and that’s where he sees this.” We should start seeing more from him at the moment, but he wishes for Cuba to be opened up economically for Americans. Sherritt is a very clear example. It is a big nickel miner. It left, and it looked like it had gone for good, but now there are signs that it is coming back, and it will come back with a deal agreed to by OFAC, the Washington Government organisation that allows licences. For a while, it looked like it was one of Trump’s former advisers who would be the business partner on that. That seems to have slipped away for a moment, but we are waiting to see who is allowed back. But yes, there has been a very clear shoving out of foreign countries and control taken by the US. That is very clear and is a stated policy ambition of the US.
Chair
That’s really shocking.
Sir John Whittingdale
All three of you have graphically described the appalling situation for ordinary people living in Cuba. My question is to you, Dr Hansing, and to Dr Sabatini, because it relates to Fleur’s original question. Who do the Cuban people blame, and therefore how secure are the Government of Cuba, given the appalling state ordinary people are finding themselves in?
Dr Hansing
Shall I take a shot at that? I think attitudes are changing as the situation changes. I would say that most people on the island are particularly angry at their own Government for not doing more for the citizens. There has been—this is interesting—a generational split in terms of the US pressure. You find that a lot of the young people who are still there—many have left, obviously—really hoped, particularly in the springtime and the early summer months, that the US would have some kind of intervention, military or otherwise. The logic was, “This reality we are living, this survival modus, will finally end.” People who grew up in the revolution in the ’60s, ’70s and ’80s, in a time with more economic stability, have a more nuanced view of the situation and are much more hopeful for a diplomatic solution, but they believe that both sides—the US Government and the Cuban Government—are equally responsible for this mess. Of course, it is a long-term problem. We all know that Cuban-US relations have been quite dreadful for decades and that this is not coming out of nowhere; it has just now escalated downwards at a velocity like never before—maybe the only other comparison is in the 1960s—and that is really affecting Cubans on the ground. As I said, most Cubans feel abandoned by their own Government, particularly materially but also in terms of social services. That is really influencing those attitudes. There is a lot of anger from Cubans towards their Government. We saw a lot of people on the streets banging their pots and doing all that kind of stuff in their frustration and ire against their Government. But there is also, again, that generational situation. I think that is very important to take into consideration.
Dr Sabatini
To echo what Katrin said, most Cubans simply want change. They blame their Government for failing to respond to their needs, but however it comes, that is what they want: they are desperate. Most do not blame the United States necessarily; they would welcome some form of intervention for some sort of change; “Let it just happen now” is something you hear when you speak to people who have relatives inside the island. But that also speaks to one of the fundamental flaws of the entire strategy, which I will talk about later: it is intended to spark a popular rebellion against the regime like we saw in eastern Europe. Because of the mass exodus of youth—some of the most, if you will, entrepreneurial Cubans have left the island; Cubans are desperate—there is not going to be that popular rebellion.
Chair
Are people leaving now? If so, how?
Dr Sabatini
Mostly by boat, and they are now mostly going to Mexico. There are severe constraints on their ability to go to Florida, where they would normally go. Yes, they are leaving mostly by boats and flights overseas. There is a mass exodus. I heard a number the other day and I do not want to quote it. Probably Katrin and Lena know it better, but we are talking about several million Cubans who have left in the last couple of years.
Dr Hansing
Yes, 3 million have left in the last five years. The numbers have gone down because it is now more difficult to leave. For many years it was very easy to get to Nicaragua without a visa, and then people migrated through central America to the US border. All that has changed, obviously, in the last few years but people are still going wherever they can go. You have Cubans trying to go to Guyana, Brazil—wherever they can get to, they are leaving to—but the numbers have gone down because it is harder to get a visa for most countries.
Ruaridh Nicoll
Can I come in?
Chair
Lena has to go soon, so may I take her last contribution before she rushes off?
Lena Savelli
Thank you very much. Apologies for that. Since there was a comment about other food coming into the country, I want to mention that, apart from what the World Food Programme is doing within the framework of the UN response plan for Hurricane Melissa and the ongoing energy crisis, there are bilateral initiatives under way. Mexico has sent humanitarian assistance. Other countries of the region have done so too. The United States has also pledged $100 million and is working through civil society organisations and the Catholic Church in Cuba. The Government have adopted a series of quite ambitious reform packages to open up the economy; in terms of food security, those include targeted social measures aimed at the most vulnerable groups and agricultural reforms such as proposed changes to land tenure and agricultural management. However, translating those policy measures into tangible economic and social outcomes will depend on resource availability and inputs and financing, so that will certainly take time. I wanted to mention those two things before, unfortunately, I have to disconnect.
Chair
Thank you very much for giving evidence to us, Lena. Ruaridh, I know you want to be involved in answering this question too.
Ruaridh Nicoll
To answer the previous question, the Miami Herald reported recently that $231.7 million-worth of fuel was imported from the US between January and August—I do not know how accurate that is, but that is what it says. On the matter of who is to blame, I think it is very important to remember that this is not a natural disaster; it is not a hurricane or an earthquake, it is entirely man-made and it could end tomorrow if some people made different decisions.
Chair
Who?
Ruaridh Nicoll
The Cuban Government and the US Government. They are both, as Katrin said, entirely locked in a system where they refuse to budge on either side. I can talk more about that, but as to who is to blame, I have figures on this. In its Americas survey, Vanderbilt University did a survey of Cubans, and 79% of those they surveyed blamed the Cuban Government. A lot of people have criticised that survey, because it was done on the internet, and there are issues around it. However, earlier in the year, I flew to Santiago, Cuba’s second city, which is 550 miles away, and I hitchhiked back—I wanted to see if I could in the middle of an oil blockade. I stood beside the road with pesos. How they do it here is that you have few pennies-worth of pesos, and you stand and you wave. In Cuba, there is an obligation to stop, especially for Government cars. It took me three days to get back. I spoke in depth to about 30 people during that trip, and 28 of them blamed their own Government. I remember one, in particular, a teacher, because of what she said to me as we stood by the road. She saw these big, fancy new cars go past, and she said, “D’you see those people going past in their big, fancy cars? They are the people that run this country, and they’re not stopping for us.”
Sir John Whittingdale
Dr Sabatini, you were talking about the exodus and how you thought it would prevent any kind of popular uprising. But given those figures about the extent to which the Government are being blamed, how do you see the future?
Chair
We have been shifting the structure of the questions—we were going to begin with the background and international situation. For those who are watching who do not necessarily know the history of Cuba, there perhaps also ought to be reference to American policy, the 60-year blockade and so on. It is important to factor that in, because I think we are all assuming a certain level of knowledge, and we meant to lay the ground for that in our first couple of questions. Given who was coming and going, we have done this rather backwards.
Dr Sabatini
Apologies for being late, and thank you for the invitation; it is an honour to be here. I have worked on Cuba and US-Cuban relations for longer than I care to remember. I will say first that you must understand that the US embargo on Cuba is the law: in 1992 and again in 1996, the US Congress, fearing that the Clinton Administration would lift the embargo with the stroke of a pen by Executive action, passed it into law. The current US embargo, unironically called the Libertad Act, demands that before the US President can ask the Congress to lift the embargo, there have to be a set of conditions in place: no Castro can be in power, all political prisoners have to be released, human rights have to be respected, and there have to be credible steps to free and fair elections. That is not just a dilemma, obviously, for the Cuban Government, who have survived through sheer repression and smothering state control over the economy, but also a problem for any negotiations and what this Administration can offer, because it has to focus on southern Florida. As we all know, Cuba is largely a US domestic issue. There are a number of very powerful Cuban American Congress people who hold that vote, and also the 29 electoral votes of Florida, which are very important. They have also been very effective at mobilising donor contributions for other Congress people to defend the embargo and defend their position, because it is quite simply an easy trade to make: defend the embargo, and for everything else you are free to do what you want to do. How did we get here? Basically, the US Administration under Trump thought that they could repeat the so-called success of Venezuela and Maduro. They thought they could extract someone or convince someone to leave, and there are even credible stories that one of the brokers that was sent there met the grandson of Raúl Castro and basically said, “If you arrange for transition, all of these riches can be yours.” That is from a credible source.
Chair
Oh really?
Dr Sabatini
Yes. He did not buy it, and he is known to be more of a bon vivant than a typical communist apparatchik. This is also the problem that we see with Iran. With a revolutionary Government, it is not as easy to corrupt them and to engage in something that would cause defections within the inner circle. The Cuban Government have survived since 1959 against a US policy and a set of Cuban Americans who desperately wanted to see change in Cuba that is democratic for the most part. That is still their mode and always will be their mode, so the idea that you could simply pick one or two leaders and arrange some sort of coalition is simply unworkable, as much as it is in Iran—although obviously the cost in Iran is much higher. That leads us to where we are heading now. Yes, there have been more provisions for the allocation of oil to the private sector inside the economy, but as we heard from Katrin and the other witnesses, the humanitarian crisis is real and worsening, and we are facing a real stand-off. The Cuban Government have offered a series of economic liberalisation measures that are not going to be sufficient—the US Government have said so—and they are not going to go far enough, because loosening their control over the economy means a risk to their political survival, and they know that. They have survived since 1959 by this complete smothering control, a very dogmatic approach, a very closed circle and vertical control within the state. They are not about to surrender that. In large part, too, after years of attempted interventions by Cuban Americans, including the bombing of a civilian aircraft by a Cuban American that killed the Cuban volleyball team, these people also fear for their life. They are not about to cede power willingly. The fundamental theory of change that has guided the US embargo for decades now is fundamentally flawed. People are not going to rise up. The regime is not going to fragment and imagine some sort of slow-walk negotiation if they fear for their lives, and, in the meantime, they can continue to repress and deny their people food and even deny them healthcare and effective education because they are accountable to no one. This will go on indefinitely—
Chair
But there has also been an argument that because of the blockade, any legitimate criticisms that there may have been—there are obviously legitimate criticisms with any Government, but there are with the Cuban system in particular—can be answered by, “But if there wasn’t the blockade, things would be so different.” That has also been part of the dynamic within Cuba.
Dr Sabatini
That has also been part of the dynamic. There was a brief moment when there was a growth of cuentapropistas—the entrepreneurial sector—where, at one point, there were 500 bed and breakfasts listed on Airbnb. I was travelling a lot to Cuba during that period, and you really did see a sense of growth and the creation of an independent economic sector that meant something. That was basically shut down in 2017 when Donald Trump returned the full embargo. Katrin mentioned the private sector, but what is also reportedly happening—I was speaking to someone about this yesterday—is that we are seeing these so-called private entrepreneurs becoming very concentrated among those who already have contacts in the Government. If you will, they are what I call the enchufados—those who are plugged in to the Government. What you are seeing now is a concentration of crony capitalism in a very infant form. This is the dilemma. The stand-off will go on indefinitely. Humanitarian assistance is important but, let us be honest, it is a Band-aid. It is going to take some form of meaningful change. Again, I do not think it will come from a popular uprising that will bring down the Government. I do not think it will come from a series of concessions that will be sufficient to meet Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s demands. For what has been talked about—I will say it quite frankly—yes, the Trump Administration have a very strong economic interest in what happens afterwards. In 1993 or 1994, Donald Trump, thinking that the embargo would be lifted under President Clinton, sent a group of associates to Cuba to investigate the opportunity for Trump properties there. As we saw, the removal of Sol Meliá and others’ ownership over hotels is really setting the stage for an open season for those properties. What can the international community do? This is a dilemma. This is typically seen as a bilateral affair. The US basically hijacked Cuba’s independence movement from Spain in 1898 and wrote into the constitution an amendment that allowed it to intervene at will. From then until 1959, and the arrival of Fidel Castro, Cuba had basically been a client state of the United States. That has not changed.
Chair
With terrible deprivation, with people not being able to read and write and with the biggest employer of women being prostitution. There was a level of suffering in Cuba. When we talk about the older generation being more sympathetic, they are the ones who remember what it was like before the revolution.
Dr Sabatini
Precisely, and with huge racial divides as well. That is exactly right. I am not whitewashing why Fidel Castro came to power. In this case, there is a role for the international community to start to try to re-establish, or at least vindicate, the need for diplomacy. What is occurring now is not diplomacy—it is simply a stand-off. The first step could be organising a large humanitarian effort, even offering the possibility of a negotiated settlement. There will be plenty of steps along this process, when there is eventually change, that will require international investment, dialogue, mediation and negotiation, even if it is down to the level of negotiating with claimants for their former property in an eventual Cuba. What we are facing right now is very serious, in the sense that, in the future, there could even be a failed state in Cuba. I have worked a lot on Haiti recently, and I do not mean to sound grim or alarmist, but the truth is that infrastructure, education and healthcare have collapsed. Donald Trump often says that we will invest and that Cuban Americans will come in. I was just talking to someone yesterday from Miami who said that what Cuban Americans mostly want is to have their properties back. Yes, they will invest, but they are not going to invest in the critical public goods of education, infrastructure and healthcare. We really are facing the risk of a completely failed state. I will end with this quick anecdote. I was talking to the head of the southern command shortly after the Obama changes—I will not name who it was at the time. He said, “The biggest security threat for the United States in Cuba is that after a change there will be a failed state.” He pointed to a map of Cuba and said, “Look at the north of Cuba. It is filled with pockets of bays and small keys and islands. That is prime real estate for narcotics traffickers and transnational crime.” Say what you will about the Cuban regime; it is not a criminal regime that engages in massive illicit trafficking. That is a primary threat. The longer this goes on, for reasons of institutions, infrastructure and even simply basic need, without any meaningful response to what can be done to rebuild Cuba, the risk of a criminal state 90 miles off the coast of the United States is very real.
Chair
Dan Carden and Aphra Brandreth have joined us. We have been through the humanitarian situation; we are now on an analysis of how we got here and what we are going to do next. That is where we have got to. Dan, do you have any questions?
Dan Carden
I have come from meeting some Cuban Members of Parliament who are here—I think the Committee is going to see them later. First, I will pick up on one humanitarian question. If it has been covered, please move on quickly.
Chair
Just so you know, Ruaridh is living in Havana. He is the Guardian journalist at the bottom of the screen.
Dan Carden
There are efforts from civic society, from trade unions and others, to get humanitarian aid out to Cuba. Given the directives that have come in May from the Trump Administration and others, is it possible for humanitarian aid to get there? Could the UK Government using diplomacy make it happen more easily?
Dr Sabatini
I will also defer to my fellow panellists, but yes—there is not a sufficient amount of aid. The problem also is the absorptive capacity. According to the Trump Administration, if that aid touches state institutions or state vendors—obviously it does indirectly—it would be in violation of the embargo, so it is about the ability of the private sector and individuals to absorb this assistance. In the last decade or so, a number of humanitarian organisations, such as the UNDP and others, have left Cuba or diminished their presence there, so it is very difficult assistance. It is therefore all the more important that there should be some co-ordinated effort internationally to mobilise that assistance, send that assistance and help in the distribution of that assistance, so that it can help people and avoid the trap of the Administration in the US claiming that it is only defending and propping up the regime.
Dan Carden
Mr Nicoll, do you want to come in?
Ruaridh Nicoll
Yes. There is a lot of aid, though probably not nearly enough, beginning to move in. I know that Spain is sending a lot and Mexico is sending a lot. It is mainly from countries choosing to do it. As Lena said, the US is putting in $100 million of aid itself, whatever you think of that. These are mainly going to church groups. The US is using the Catholic Church. There is a lot going through Protestant churches. I know that a lot of the countries love—Katrin will probably know more about this—Quisicuaba, which is an amazing Yoruba group that has Government contacts but is run by an incredible man. They are very good at getting aid to the people that need it and, to speak to Katrin’s point earlier, to black people who are suffering disproportionately because pretty much all emigration has been white, which means the people abroad are usually white and sending to families. There have been, as you pointed out, solidarity groups. I say this despite having been a Guardian man for 36 years. That is more people arriving with suitcases of aid. They come for a week. There is a Canadian group at the moment. They then spend perhaps a little too much time in the company of people from the Cuban Government. When the big flotilla came—whenever that was—it had Jeremy Corbyn, Owen Jones and Hasan Piker. I spent a lot of time around those people and they could not understand why the Cuban people were so angry with them. They said, “Why is everybody being rude to us?” It was because it was seen as quite performative. One little fact: when people arrive with suitcases full of medicines, it is great, and it is brilliant to go to a hospital. That is really good news and all those things are good, but I can buy any medicine I want here. I have six companies in my phone with solar panels. It is all about money now, and if you have enough money to buy those things. I have a WhatsApp, which I use, and literally any medicine will arrive in 30 minutes at my front door on a motorbike. This is stuff that you could not get in Britain without doctors signing off. You are spending £1,000 to fly to Cuba and stay in a Government-owned hotel with a suitcase for a week. I like these people; they are very well-meaning. But as the Chairwoman said, for nearly all the flights that used to come from Canada—this was long before this blockade—if you said, “I have a suitcase full of donations,” they would let that suitcase go for free. Because of the cancellation of all those flights, far bigger daily aid of the sort we are talking about has been cut off. Countries are beginning to send stuff, but as Chris said, it is a fig leaf. This is a political problem that needs to be solved, not an earthquake.
Dan Carden
Thank you, Mr Nicoll. Dr Hansing, this is a political problem that needs to be solved. The UK has long had a diplomatic relationship with Cuba. Does the UK have a role to play? Cuba would be linked in with the Caribbean countries and with Latin America. Where will the diplomatic solution come from?
Dr Hansing
Thank you for that question. First, I want to highlight what Chris and Ruaridh just said about the humanitarian disaster that we are living in right now, which really needs to be approached with internationally co-ordinated humanitarian assistance. What is happening now is that individual bilateral aid is coming in from different countries: everybody is doing their own thing, and nobody really knows what the needs are. It has to be co-ordinated—that is the main focus that we need to get out there. We need to work among different countries in Europe, the UK, Canada and Latin America to figure out what is needed and deal with these bureaucratic and logistical issues. We also need to get enough fuel in so that distribution can be as unproblematic as possible, to get the aid to the people who really need it, particularly in the provinces.
Dan Carden
I suppose my question is, who would lead that diplomatic effort?
Dr Hansing
Yes. To your second question, the UK has an enormous potential role to play here. The UK has had a long relationship with Cuba and could really take on a leadership role, with other countries and Governments. That is not only on the humanitarian side. I think all of us on the panel are on the same page that the solution—if we can speak of there being a solution—needs a two-track response: one is about the urgent humanitarian aid for ordinary people who are suffering, but that needs to come alongside serious diplomacy to reduce this US-Cuba confrontation, which is prolonging the suffering on the ground. There I strongly believe that the UK could and should play a role to support a mediated solution to this catastrophe. This is a two-track situation, and we need to look at those in tandem. One can feed off the other: a diplomatic effort can come out of this humanitarian effort, and the UK could become a leader on that.
Dr Sabatini
Working through CARICOM and Commonwealth countries could also be a way to help to regionalise this and make it less about Europe intervening in a situation that some people describe as a family feud between the US and Cuba. At the last meeting, CARICOM spoke very forcefully about the need and crisis being created by the US blockade on oil. That would be an obvious leverage point that the UK could effectively use to make this much more about a regional response, not just a US-Cuba dynamic.
Sir John Whittingdale
Dr Sabatini, coming back to the US approach, everybody has said that the Cuban people are desperate to achieve change, but you have also suggested that it will not happen internally. The Trump Administration has been ramping up the rhetoric, have declared that it is an extraordinary threat to the United States and have issued an indictment against Raúl Castro. Do you think the United States are likely to intervene, perhaps like they did in Grenada? If they did, would the Cuban people not welcome with open arms their coming to rescue them from their plight?
Dr Sabatini
Many Cubans inside Cuba, from what I hear, would welcome some form of US intervention. I do not know how practical that is for a number of reasons. First, again, much like Iran, this is a revolutionary Government that would not necessarily crumble. This is not a case of just sending in special ops forces, taking someone out of the country and putting them in prison somewhere in the United States. Secondly, I do not think the United States wants to fully own a Cuba that has been devastated by decades of economic mismanagement, an embargo and now a blockade. Where the US would strike and whether it would commit troops is very difficult to answer. I think the Cuban military would probably fight. It would not be a fair fight, of course; its weapons are, for the most part, Soviet-era weapons. But again, the Cuban economy has been run largely by the military. Since the “special period” following the collapse of the Soviet Union, much of the running of the economy—everything from hotels and restaurants to oil and gas—was done by the military. Those are perks that it will be loath to part with. While, popularly, most people would probably welcome something that brings change to Cuba, I think there would be pockets of resistance simply due to the fact that they would be parting with a very rich vein. There are allegedly $800 billion of funds held in offshore banks; I do not know whether that is true, but the Miami Herald has reported it—as we know with the Miami Herald, that does not always make it true. They will be loath to part with some of that, so there would be resistance. For the United States, given its other commitments right now, I think that would be more than it bargained for.
Sir John Whittingdale
There is obviously political pressure within the United States. You have an awful lot of Cubans who moved there and, of course, a Secretary of State who is very firmly committed to change in Cuba. To what extent do you think that will have an impact?
Dr Sabatini
It already has an impact. In this case, the policy is not that different from the one on Venezuela. In the case of Venezuela, the Donald Trump Administration has a certain idea that is largely transactional and about extracting rents from Venezuela, as we saw with the so-called oil deal that will guarantee rights over 65 billion barrels’ worth of oil. The same thing is probably true regarding Cuba, for the reasons that I mentioned. Marco Rubio, however, wants to run for President in the next race, in 2028. To do that, he needs to shore up his own base in south Florida. You mentioned the indictment of Raúl Castro; that was, in many ways, a sop to that particular base, to say, “Well, we’re not going to bring regime change as soon as possible, but we are going to at least indict someone who is your avowed enemy.” It will not work. The Administration are not about to swoop in and remove Raúl Castro. It would not change anything within the regime, even if they did. It also wouldn’t be a good look, arresting a 90-year-old man and putting him on to a plane. But Marco Rubio has a particular design on this, which is that he wants to see change. He has now moved the goalposts: he was promising change in Cuba before the midterm elections, which will be in November; now he is saying that there will be change within two years, which, fortunately for him and his ambitions, coincides with the election. There will be some form of change, but again, his back is against the wall, given that the embargo is in law. How much he can give away in terms of facilitating some sort of slow-motion transition, or even a complete removal of the Cuban Government, is very limited.
Ruaridh Nicoll
There is nothing like living in a country to put you off military intervention. I do not believe that the majority of Cubans, or even many Cubans, want military intervention. You meet people on the street who say it—that started about six months ago—but it is a thing to shock you. I still find it baffling that people I speak to in Miami leave this country, go abroad and are quickly quite willing to fire missiles at you. I do not think that the majority want that. I think it is now unlikely to happen as well, but there is a very important point to make: things are changing here very quickly. It is not the same country that it was three months ago. The reason it is changing is because, as Chris was just saying, this new MIPYME economy is really firing. I live in Vedado, which I suppose is the equivalent of Chelsea in Havana, and this whole new club has opened on the Malecón. It has swimming pools, a tennis court has been built, and it has a racket court. It had been a defunct state property, but a Cuban woman who had been in Argentina for 16 years, where she had various restaurants, came back and renovated it. I have no idea how she got that lease or what the form of the lease is, but she now has a property that, in the alternative universe, would be worth $100 million or maybe more—I do not know what the state of that lease is. That is happening to all the hotels that Meliá and Iberostar have left. A call has been put out to entrepreneurs in Cuba to say, “If you can get outside funding, take over a hotel.” You are seeing that with the Iberostar Packard, which is a very fancy hotel that has been taken over by someone who is very close to the regime. I went there with a CNN correspondent on Saturday night to have a look at it, and it is party, party, party and reggaeton. Everybody was dressed to nines, and it was absolutely full. What is interesting to me, because I spend a lot of time in Miami talking to Miami people, is that there is this group of quite elderly Miami people who lost their properties. They are all sitting around discussing how they are going to open a stock market, and how they are going to do this when it all changes, but they do not seem to realise that the younger generation of expatriates are pouring money into this country right now. That is changing the situation on the ground at a speed that I cannot even begin to explain.
Chair
The thing that has struck me from the evidence I’ve heard today is that we may find ourselves in a situation where you might well have hotels and so on that have lots of money—there is this class of entrepreneurs making huge amounts of money with their private gas stations and so on—but who is going to be responsible for the roads, schools and the very state that holds a country together?
Ruaridh Nicoll
Well, exactly. It is all the achievements of the revolution. Let’s just start from the principle that Andy Burnham and Ed Miliband are not going to die on this hill against the Trump Administration—I just do not see it happening. No country is going to decide that Cuba is worth spending that sort of political capital. Since you very kindly invited me here, I have been trying to think what would actually be useful for Britain. First, because we go through endless rumours, maintain a proper working embassy. We have had three very good ambassadors in a row, and they have done a lot—Chevening and all that has a profound effect. Work with Spain, Mexico and Canada to ensure that Cuba does not just become part of the US economy without any reciprocal obligations—or, as Chris said, not clearing up the mess it makes. Perhaps send aid, especially if it is direct, and support the great institutions of the country, like Havana University, the cancer and maternity hospitals and all those things. Just do not let it become another terrible Latin American country, which is what it is going to become, where the disparities of wealth are appalling and the violence is extreme.
Dr Sabatini
I would just like to second that. There is also the need for education. In the brief moment I was at Columbia University, at the time we were trying to organise exchanges with law students in universities in Cuba, but the Cuban Government were not interested in it. You are going to have underprepared lawyers who are going to be negotiating contracts with rapacious lawyers—I do not mean that to be redundant—and they will not be prepared to negotiate the terms for this investment that is going to be necessary to help preserve Cuba’s autonomy and agency over its own progress.
Chair
The consensus seems to be that Cubans would not want to be invaded, but what is Donald Trump going to do for two years post the mid-terms if he does not have any particular power at home? Might he not turn his eyes to a regime change in Cuba, despite the lessons that may be in front of him? What are the chances of that happening?
Dr Sabatini
In these moments, as I said during the build-up over Venezuela, it’s like Anton Chekhov said about a play: “You don’t show a gun in the first act and not use it in the second.” You do not ramp up this level of rhetoric and bluster and marshal force or threats and not deliver in some way. I suspect he will deliver something. Will it be effective? I do not think so. They have plans. I have heard that both the CIA and the US Defence Department—I will continue to use that term—have prepared action plans for specific targets to strike. That may be the case. Will that deliver change? I do not think so. Will it deliver any commitment to Cuba’s long-term economic health, survival and progress? I doubt it. But I think something will have to be done in the next two years, not just for Donald Trump’s sense of bluster and rhetoric, but also for Marco Rubio’s political ambitions.
Chair
Dr Hansing, do you agree?
Dr Hansing
I do. Nobody knows what is going to happen. It is a very opaque situation on both the US and the Cuban sides. What needs to be underlined is that every day that goes by, the situation for the majority of Cubans, who are part of the “have nots”, will get worse. One thing we have not mentioned is that there is a real possibility that if things get much worse, which they could, particularly with the diseases and the lack of water and food and so on, some sort of chaos forms—people do not go on the street demonstrating, but the situation becomes chaotic. In the past, Cubans have tended to take to the sea in large numbers. That could turn into a refugee crisis. That is something that needs to be taken into account as a potential scenario, especially as the situation spirals downwards. All these things show that the situation on the ground is not favourable for either the Cuban Government or the US Government. Waiting to see what happens is not a good strategy. This is where I again want to emphasise that the UK and other Governments who do not want the situation to become worse can take on a leadership role by pushing for co-ordinated international assistance and some form of mediated conversation between these two antagonistic Governments. This is where we need to focus in this moment, when we are in a situation of limbo. The only change in this limbo is that the situation on the ground is getting worse for the majority of the Cuban people while a small minority is getting very rich, like in many former eastern European countries after the fall of the Berlin wall. There is a lot of overlap there, and there are lessons to be learned. In the meantime, this could take on a life of its own. My push is to sensitise the UK Government to get involved in these conversations and push for both a humanitarian and a diplomatic solution.
Fleur Anderson
Further to that, what other mediation is happening at the moment? Is one of those countries already leading diplomatic efforts? Should the UN be leading that but is not able to? Why would the UK be uniquely placed compared with others?
Dr Hansing
At the moment, I personally do not know of any effort or mediated conversations that are going on. Maybe there are some, but I do not know of any. The potential to bring in a couple of actors—trusted and respected Governments and world leaders—has the force of bringing about a situation where both Governments could be sensitised to the fact that the situation and the status quo really is untenable and will work against their own interests. It is not in the interest of the United States to have a refugee crisis. It is not in the interest of the US, as Chris said before, for the northern part of the Cuban coast, which has hundreds of quays and little islands, to become prime real estate for narco-trafficking. That is not in the national interest of the United States. It is also not in the interest of the Cuban Government for the situation on the ground to become more and more chaotic. In this in-between space, there is the potential to have a mediated solution, and the UK could and should be part of a coalition of Governments that could push for mediation. It could be a rational situation where both sides come together and figure out a way to move forward slowly in their own interests. The UK can be part of a group, which could involve the EU, Canada, some Latin American countries and the Caribbean region as a coalition.
Ruaridh Nicoll
Can I just add—
Chair
I will let you speak in a moment, but let me stick this question in, too. This is very interesting, but what are the chances of either the Cuban Government or the current American Government being open to even the possibility of mediation? I will ask Ruaridh Nicoll that; do say whatever else you wanted to put in that I interrupted you on.
Ruaridh Nicoll
I love Katrin for saying this, because it is optimistic, but I feel that it is very difficult. The Cuban Government have spent a lot of time not wanting interference from anyone else, and I do not need to speak to how the Trump Administration deal with other countries. It would be wonderful if there was a way forward without causing the trouble that Katrin talks about. I think that if intervention comes, it comes after what Katrin was talking about—an epidemic, a general breakdown of society or protests. Protests are possible. The protests so far, including July 11, have started with young mothers turning up at state buildings with babies, saying, “We need help. We can’t feed our babies.” If you start losing babies, and if babies start to die—I think that I have had this conversation with Katrin—people will come back on to the streets. At the moment, they are too frightened to. Again, I think that I am quoting other panels, but if people lose their children or something, they do not have anything to live for any more, and then you might see protests. That is when I can see the US intervening. Of course, as Chris said, the US military is all prepared and has done all the research. We have been surrounded by surveillance drones for about seven or eight months, and they have every plan available. But, at the moment, I would be surprised—though I would not be completely surprised—if that happens. If the crisis that Cuba is being pushed into gets to the point of lots of people dying for whatever reason, I think that that is where the intervention comes from.
Dr Sabatini
I would add to the question that there has been no offer yet. As unrealistic and naive as it is, no one has stepped forward to say, “When the moment comes, we can help,” from CARICOM or other countries—even symbolically. I agree with Mr Nicoll about the likelihood of the Cubans accepting that. The Cuban regime is oddly very elitist, and they prefer to deal directly with the United States. There has been no offer made, and that would at least help to bring some attention to what is occurring and the possibility that the current path is leading only to human suffering.
Ruaridh Nicoll
I want to add one little thing. Do tell me if I am being—
Chair
No—what you are saying is very interesting. We need to wind up fairly quickly, but I am pulling against my heart because I do want to hear more.
Ruaridh Nicoll
The US played its card. It tried to do a deal with Raúl’s grandson, Raulito, and it thought it could get enough of the people who want to just survive in power and be rich in the Government to tip the whole thing over. It has not worked out. There is clearly enough resistance in the Cuban Government against that. There are enough people who still believe or who are not wealthy enough and want to protect their positions to stop it. We know that those conversations have come to an end. There is a breath being taken, at least by the US while it keeps its foot on Cuba’s throat. It is having a breath and thinking about what to do after the mid-terms.
Dr Sabatini
Just one quick thing. After the mid-terms, the likely Chair of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, Gregory Meeks, has said that he wants to investigate and look into the Cuba policy. He is a Democrat from Queens, so I think there will be action to investigate from the US Congress as well.
Chair
That is very interesting. We will visit the United States early next year. Perhaps we ought to make sure that we speak to them, because it has been a really interesting session and this is not discussed enough in Britain. I know that there is a place for Cuba in the hearts of many British people. There is great concern about what is going on, but very little understanding of what has happened. I hope that those who have taken the time to watch the session today and to listen to these extraordinary experts will have learned a great deal. I know that I have, and I thank you very much for your time.