Oral evidence: Northern Ireland and the EU Referendum, HC 760Monday 7 March 2016

Oral evidence, 7 March 2016.

Witnesses

Mike Nesbitt MLA, Ulster Unionist Party, and Michael McGimpsey MLA, Ulster Unionist Party, gave evidence.

Chair

We will open the public session. Gentlemen, thank you very much for joining us. I think you know what we are doing. We are meeting various party representatives today and one or two more people tomorrow. Thank you very much for coming. To kick off, the UUP just declared its position on the referendum. Perhaps it might be useful if you just briefly tell us what your line of thought on it is and then we will go through the questions, if that is okay.

Mike Nesbitt

Yes, certainly, Chair. From memory, and I might not get this word perfect, we are on balance persuaded Northern Ireland’s interests are best served remaining in the European Union while the UK Government press for further reform. We would like to see a return to the founding principle of free trade and an end to further political union. Although we had something like 99% agreement on our proposal at our executive meeting, we are conscious that there will be individual members within the 2,000-odd members of the party who will vote for out on 23 June. We feel it is only right and proper as a mature, democratic party that we facilitate that.

Chair

Thank you very much for your opening comments. You mentioned a reformed European Union. You mentioned ongoing negotiations. Are you confident—

Mike Nesbitt

No, Chairman, I said pressing for reform. I did not use the word “negotiation”. I do believe that what the UK Government have done to a certain extent is make at least some of the other 27 think about what they might like to see by way of reform, but I understand the UK negotiations are over.

Chair

Thank you for that clarification.

Mr Evans

It is on the deal I would like to ask you, Mike. Just looking at the deal in itself, do you think that on its own was enough?

Mike Nesbitt

I think it could have been better and that is why we are calling for more reform. We took a little bit of time before coming to a decision, first of all, because it belongs to our ruling party executive and you need time to call it. We probably took two weeks where the earliest we could have done it was one week. That was partly to see whether people were going to study it in any detail. Frankly, I do not think they did. Part of the concern I have is that the debate on in or out of Europe tends to be conducted on an emotional level. It is hearts over heads, although I have to say on Saturday I felt our party executive had a really hardnosed debate on the main issues.

Mr Evans

Why do you think the Prime Minister did not ask for more?

Mike Nesbitt

I think the Prime Minister feels he asked for what was practicable.

Mr Evans

But you have said that there should be further reform. Are you not pessimistic about the chances of further reform? As the Prime Minister did not even ask for what was in the manifesto at the last general election because he thought he would not get it, what makes you believe that going back and asking for more, Oliver Twist like, is going to do anything more than either nothing or even more thin gruel?

Mike Nesbitt

I do not particularly think he will succeed because clearly if you have the threat of withdrawing, that gives you your strongest bargaining chip. What I am suggesting is that there is a potential at least that some of the other 27 member states will now look at bureaucracy in some of the other baskets and say, “Do you know what, actually there is room for improvement here and we are going to lead the charge rather than the UK”.

Mr Evans

I know we are only into week two of the referendum campaign, if I can call it that. Have you taken a view as to the quality of the debate so far and your view on Project Fear?

Mike Nesbitt

I think the quality of the debate is quite shallow in Northern Ireland. As I said, I think people are approaching it with their hearts rather than their heads and if you do approach it with your heart, you are much more likely to see success for Brexit. I for one certainly do not feel any great emotional tie to the concept of the European Union, with the exception, funnily enough, of the Ryder Cup three days every two years. When Darren Clarke from Dungannon leads out Rory McIlroy from Holywood in County Down this autumn in the United States, I will feel European. It can be done, but it is not being done on a practical level. I do not think people feel any—

Mr Evans

On Project Fear itself?

Mike Nesbitt

I think there is a lack of good, solid detail or, going beyond that, I think we are now also into the territory of people just looking at it in terms of lies, damned lies and statistics. People will believe what they choose to believe in terms of the finances.

Kate Hoey

Mike, can I take you up on that point about the Ryder Cup? The Ryder Cup has nothing to do with the EU. It is Europe. Europe is huge. The EU is tiny in relation to the rest of Europe. The same as the Eurovision song contest; there might be a lot of people who think we should not be in that. Anyway, this idea that somehow all these things are going to be taken away from us, you are almost adding to Project Fear in a nice way—

Mike Nesbitt

I certainly do not mean to. Kate Hoey—that we will not get the Ryder Cup if we vote to leave the EU.

Mike Nesbitt

No, I think you are right, I think people would support the Ryder Cup whether they were flying the European Union flag or not, but it does show you that sometimes people can coalesce around an issue emotionally. My serious point is I do not sense Europe has made any effort, never mind had any success, in trying to make people feel that it is a really good thing to wake up as a member of the European Union.

Mr Hepburn

How many meetings have you had with the Prime Minister over this issue?

Mike Nesbitt

One.

Mr Hepburn

What part did he have in persuading you to come to your decision?

Mike Nesbitt

I think it was a useful meeting in terms of clarification going both ways. Sometimes when I sit where your Chairman is sitting, chairing the Committee for the Office of the First Minister and Deputy First Minister, which has the European portfolio, there is not the level of engagement that perhaps we as a society, as Northern Ireland society, should have in the importance of Europe. I sometimes feel that when people come over to talk to us from Great Britain—present company excepted—they need to be reminded that we have a land border with a eurozone country. It was useful in that engagement with the Prime Minister to remind him that we have this border, that it is several hundred miles long and it is effectively impossible to make it into a hard border. There is not going to be a Donald Trump-like wall put up, paid for by the Republic or not. Where will the border be if we need to have a harder border? The Prime Minister indicated pretty clearly that it would not be on the physical separation of Northern Ireland from the Republic but it is more likely to be at Stranraer, Cairnryan, Heathrow, Gatwick, our ports and our airports. That is a concerning issue for us. These were some of the issues that we were able to tease out with him. As Unionists, we are very concerned by the quote from Nicola Sturgeon that if there is a UK Brexit but Scotland are for staying in that that would almost certainly—I think were her words, almost certainly—provoke a decision of hers to press the button for a second Scottish independence referendum. I am not naive enough to think that that is not the only opportunity she sees. There may be others, but that is the obvious and immediate one. As a unionist, do I want my fingerprints on that button when she presses it? No, I do not. These were some of the interesting issues that I think the Prime Minister did not necessarily have at the top of his agenda when we met him.

Mr Hepburn

Is there one single issue that you find of prime importance in this particular matter to the people of Northern Ireland that swung you?

Mike Nesbitt

I think there are three. The three big ones would be the existential threat to the future of the United Kingdom. The second one is the border—because I am old enough to remember travelling from here to Great Britain in the 1970s and gate 49 at Heathrow, where we were out there with the passengers travelling to Israel. The third one is the money, because I am in no doubt we are significant net beneficiaries in Northern Ireland of being members of the European Union. There has been a lot of emphasis on the impact on our farmers, but I think our voluntary and community sector would take a terrible hammering if we lost the European money. There is also the fact that this institution here for the first time in the last Programme for Government tried to make a serious effort to draw down competitive funds. We have been perhaps over-dependent on PEACE money, the ring-fenced funding coming to Northern Ireland out of Brussels. There was a Programme for Government commitment in the last PFG to increase the competitive drawdown by 20%. On reflection, that was somebody putting their finger in the air to test the wind because it was very easily achieved. A 30%, 40%, 50% increase may be a more realistic target. Just when we are learning how to access those pots of money, it seems like the wrong time to be talking about coming out. Money, border and the future of the Union would be the three.

Chair

Would you be confident about Northern Ireland retaining the special status with regards to the EU, because none of it is guaranteed, is it?

Mike Nesbitt

No, I do not think anything is guaranteed and I think we did come reasonably close to losing our special status a couple of years ago. It is all debatable. The level of single farm payment is not guaranteed forever. PEACE IV I think was a surprise to many of us who thought PEACE III was the third and final instalment, so I do not think we should be thinking about PEACE V as a possibility. So, a lot of uncertainties.

Jack Lopresti

You said that you thought that the Prime Minister’s deal was not good enough as far as it needed to go further and there needs to be further reform. Given the valiant efforts of the Prime Minister over recent weeks and months to get a decent deal, what do you think the game changer will be for him or a future Prime Minister to get better terms? I do not see what is going to change and in my mind the process demonstrates that meaningful reform within the EU is virtually impossible. My other question is: why are you so pessimistic about our prospects if we are a free sovereign country again that can trade globally with the expertise and everything we have to offer here in Northern Ireland and down on the mainland?

Michael McGimpsey

As far as the Prime Minister and his deal is concerned, you never get up from the table thinking you could not have done better. I was in business all my life and I never did a business deal I did not think maybe I could have got a bit more if I had been more hardnosed, but you always have to leave something behind you for the other fellow. As far as I am concerned, and I am on record as saying that, whatever his deal was I am buying it, and I am buying it because I believe that the UK should be part of Europe, which leads me on to your other point: why do you think that the UK cannot do well outside? It could do well and there are lots of reasons why you can argue about that, but the EU at $18.5 trillion annual GDP is the biggest economic unit in the world. The UK is the second biggest economy within that economy. After that comes the US at $17.3 trillion, over a full trillion behind. China comes next, at 10.6, I think it is, or 10.3, so those are the big players in the world economy. Japan is down around 4.6 and the UK is sitting at 3. You are in a playground and you have all the big boys and Britain is one of the smaller players. In that issue or in that situation, you need friends and you need people to work with. It seems to me that within the EU Britain is doing well. I think Britain is doing well. I think the EU has 20% of the world GDP. It has half a billion of a closed market for us and it is currently doing trade deals with other parts, including primarily the US. There are a number of reasons. Purely on the economics, I think that it gives Britain opportunities, influence, and it provides a prosperity that I think will be very hard to match outside. When you look at what is happening as well, these big conglomerates and China coming strong and so on, I think that Britain at 3 trillion GDP and a population of 66 million playing against Europe with half a billion or China with 1.3 billion or the US and its group with somewhere around half a billion, it is very hard to see in that sort of trading world how we can operate on an even footing. Things might change. I do not believe that Britain is going to go bust. I think we will make a living and do well as a trading nation, but I also look then at Northern Ireland, at our farmers losing the CAP. I hear talk that the money could go up if the CAP goes, but nobody tells me where it is coming from or by how much and when. Then we also will be in this free trade UK and I remember what it was like in the UK before we joined the EU, as many of us do. It was a difficult trading situation for Britain, fighting over a tariff barrier to get into Europe, with free trade for food, for example, our farmers trying to compete with Argentinean beef and New Zealand lamb and Canadian wheat. They just could not do it. There are a number of questions. What is going to happen on each of those issues? We have trade deals with 27 EU members. All of those are going to have to be disconnected as we get new trade deals because we are going to need them. How generous are they going to be to the UK? They clearly cannot give us a cash incentive or a trading incentive to walk out so there are going to be penalties. I am not clear what the penalties are, so it just seems to me status quo because you know what you are doing. Again, as I say, I was in business all my life and I will always have the view you do not change a winner and we are on a winner at the minute. You may see sunnier things outside further up, but I just think that is something that is more questionable.

Jack Lopresti

I would say that we are doing very well—the world’s fifth biggest economy. Most of the European nations are struggling financially and stagnating. Again, I think we can strike new trade deals with lots of other countries outside the EU and maintain a trading link with the European Union. I do not share your pessimism.

Michael McGimpsey

Half our business is with the EU.

Jack Lopresti

Sure, and that would continue.

Michael McGimpsey

Why would it continue unless you get trade deals? You are going to have to go around each one of those and do deals.

Chair

Order. Questions and answers. Thank you, Mr McGimpsey.

Michael McGimpsey

All right. Yes, sorry.

Chair

We have brief sessions. Each one is only fairly brief, so we will move on to Gavin.

Gavin Robinson

Good afternoon, gentlemen. Mr Nesbitt, I think I heard you this morning on “Good Morning Ulster”—and if I paraphrase you can confirm whether the thrust is right or not—that nobody sensibly or credibly could accept anything other than Northern Ireland as a net beneficiary from the European Union. Is that a fair assessment?

Mike Nesbitt

Yes, financially, yes.

Gavin Robinson

What figures or sources do you have to back that up?

Mike Nesbitt

Goodness, I have not brought them down with me, Mr Robinson, but I think if you look at what is coming our way over the next multiannual framework, it is well over a billion. There is, of course, the PEACE money. PEACE moneys I, II and III are over €2 billion. I think there is a set of statistics that would say this is what we have got in. There was a House of Commons research paper—I think it was financial year 2008-09—that said the UK were financial contributors but Northern Ireland was something like 160 sterling or euro per head beneficiaries.

Gavin Robinson

I guess on the issue about sensibly or credibly, would you accept that Graham Gudgin, a former Ulster Unionist special adviser, is a sensible and credible individual?

Kate Hoey

He hesitated.

Mike Nesbitt

I have always considered Graham’s glass to be half-empty.

Gavin Robinson

Okay. Mr Gudgin was able to indicate in evidence to this Committee that the strength of the Northern Ireland economy and the growth in Northern Ireland’s economy has reached a position of equilibrium, so what we contribute is roughly the same as what we get back, which is different from the rest of the UK but that there is no net beneficiary.

Mike Nesbitt

He is at odds with your own House of Commons research.

Gavin Robinson

You are indicating figures from 2008-09, admittedly, whereas he is focusing on the growth and the strength of the Northern Ireland economy. I just wonder, in the context of nobody has sensibly or credibly been able to suggest that Northern Ireland is anything but a beneficiary, whether the situation is much more positive. In this, Mr Gudgin’s glass has a little bit more than yours.

Mike Nesbitt

I would suggest to you that we are in the territory of lies, damned lies and statistics. You are going to pull out whatever stats you want; I am going to pull out whatever I think is useful to my position. That, I think, is politics.

Gavin Robinson

Happily, this Committee is about gathering evidence, so that is what we are planning to do. You mentioned some of the operational issues that might arise around border controls. Would it surprise you that UKBA operate what you indicate may come after a Brexit now and that their operations are at Stranraer, Cairnryan, Gatwick and Heathrow?

Mike Nesbitt

What I was trying to indicate was the sense we got from the Prime Minister that there was every possibility that it would become a harder border, that it would be more like what I experienced in the 1970s travelling between here and Great Britain.

Gavin Robinson

Foot passengers are screened by UKBA going to Scotland but not coming from Scotland, and that is the same in vehicles as well, so that hard border does exist currently between Northern Ireland and the rest of the United Kingdom.

Mike Nesbitt

Well, it depends on frequency, I suppose, of which spot checks and security operate.

Lady Hermon

Apologies for being a minute or two late. I hope I am not duplicating earlier questions. Do you think this EU referendum debate will dominate the Northern Ireland Assembly elections?

Mike Nesbitt

We will be doing our best to ensure that it does not dominate the canvass leading up to 5 May because we believe 5 May should be about what is now nine years and two full mandates of Government led by two big parties of the Northern Ireland Assembly. For us, it is a very important issue but it should not be the defining one for who governs this country from 5 May in the next mandate.

Lady Hermon

Since the DUP and the Ulster Unionists have taken diametrically opposed positions on the EU referendum, is that a guarantee that there will not be Unionist compromises and agreements and deals done on candidates running for the Northern Ireland Assembly?

Mike Nesbitt

There will not be deals done on running candidates for the Northern Ireland Assembly but that I think is because of the words of the First Minister and Leader of the DUP at her spring conference last weekend when she made clear that if you did not vote for the DUP you were likely to get Martin McGuinness as First Minister.

Lady Hermon

Which is scaremongering.

Mike Nesbitt

Those are your words, but I do not see how you can do any sort of political pact in the face of that sentiment.

Lady Hermon

Would you like to elaborate?

Chair

We are here to discuss the EU referendum, though, not the—

Lady Hermon

It is a close point though, but moving on, Chairman. The Secretary of State, Theresa Villiers, has made it quite clear that she appears to think that Northern Ireland will be much better off outside the EU, as part of the UK obviously. Have you had the opportunity to correct that impression?

Mike Nesbitt

We have not had the opportunity or requested the opportunity to discuss that matter with her. We see her fairly frequently to discuss matters with regard to the working of these institutions, but we have not had the European debate with her. I see no reason why she should not carry out her functions as Secretary of State and keep a Chinese wall between that and her views on European Union membership.

Lady Hermon

How do you maintain a Chinese wall when she has made it quite clear that she is opposed to the UK being a member and continuing to be a member of the European Union? How does that not affect her role as the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland?

Mike Nesbitt

I do not see how in a practical sense that would impact on her role as Secretary of State for Northern Ireland.

Lady Hermon

You regard it as being quite impartial for her to appear alongside those who are publicly campaigning, as is Boris Johnson when he visits Northern Ireland? It is all right for the Secretary of State to be with him, supporting him in her role as the Secretary of State, and Boris Johnson is very publicly campaigning in Northern Ireland for an EU exit?

Mike Nesbitt

We resolved our position on Saturday, which as you know is on balance in favour of remaining within the European Union, but also that individual members of the party would be free to vote for or against on 23 June. On that basis, how can we criticise the Secretary of State for taking a position that is for Brexit?

Lady Hermon

That is very interesting indeed. Moving on to the chief constable then, we know you have been told by the Prime Minister that the border is going to be firmed up—I think those were your words rather than mine, or maybe those were the words of the Prime Minister—along Stranraer and Scotland and England and Wales, presumably. That is going to be the harder border, though, as Mr Robinson has indicated, that probably is already the case. Have you had the opportunity to discuss with the Chief Constable, George Hamilton, his concerns or maybe his lack of concern if it came—

Mike Nesbitt

No, we have not discussed the European Union with the chief constable.

Lady Hermon

Since the border is one of the key issues that you raised, if I understood you correctly, with the Prime Minister, would it not have been sensible to have discussed this issue with the Chief Constable before meeting the Prime Minister?

Mike Nesbitt

Or the commissioner of An Garda Síochána?

Lady Hermon

I do not think I mentioned him.

Mike Nesbitt

No. Well, it could be equally argued, I presume, that it would have been sensible to speak to her. What we wanted to do was get a sense of the politics of it and that is why we went to the Prime Minister rather than to a police chief.

Lady Hermon

Have you any intention of discussing this issue with the chief constable, George Hamilton, not An Garda Síochána but with the Chief Constable?

Mike Nesbitt

I will certainly take that away and consider it, but if we are considering it I think it would be wise to speak to both.

Lady Hermon

Why is it equally important to speak to both?

Mike Nesbitt

Because it is a border that is policed on one side with the PSNI and on the other side by An Garda Síochána.

Lady Hermon

Thank you. That is really very helpful.

Ian Paisley

Mike, Michael, you are very welcome. Will the Ulster Unionist Party play any formal role in the remain campaign?

Mike Nesbitt

We have no intention of doing that at present. What we would like to see is a separation between the EU question and the Assembly elections. There may be a question of thinking about what happens between now and 5 May and what happens from 6 May through to 23 June.

Ian Paisley

Did the Prime Minister offer you any role or any resources if the Ulster Unionist Party joined the remain campaign?

Mike Nesbitt

Categorically not—not offered, not asked for.

Ian Paisley

In terms of any role, will any of your members be on platforms with remain between now and the campaign?

Mike Nesbitt

That would be for individual members. I know that there was a member who was keen to take part in the platform last Friday night when the exit campaign was launched. They decided that because that was so close to our executive meeting to decide our position that they would decline the invitation to be on that platform, but I would expect them to—

Ian Paisley

Your individual declined the invitation?

Mike Nesbitt

Yes, but next time they are perfectly free so to do, to take that opportunity, as are any individuals who want to be on the remain campaign.

Ian Paisley

You made it clear in the decision that you came to that money was very important to this in terms of making sure that Northern Ireland benefited and continued to benefit from its European association. You mentioned that the CAP, and I am sure you also implied the single farm payment, were very beneficial to Northern Ireland. Are you aware that farm subsidies in countries outside of the EU but those countries that are still in Europe have more generous and more targeted farm subsidy programmes?

Mike Nesbitt

Yes, and I think the important thing, Mr Paisley, is that if you look at what might happen in the event of the money not having to go to Brussels, you must ask yourself where is it likely to go. Certainly, we looked at a political map of the United Kingdom, where it is very clear that the Prime Minister is head of a political party that has its base in the south of England. You have to question in the realpolitik of the world is that where the money is more likely to go or is it more likely to come to Northern Ireland.

Ian Paisley

Do you know where the largest dairy farms are in the United Kingdom?

Mike Nesbitt

They are in Northern Ireland.

Ian Paisley

No, they are in the south of England.

Mike Nesbitt

Are they?

Ian Paisley

Do you know where the largest lamb slaughtering factories are in the United Kingdom?

Mike Nesbitt

Well, I am now going to guess the south of England.

Ian Paisley

Yes. Do you realise that UK farm businesses account for £20 billion of money every year and, therefore, the idea that farms would not benefit from the British Exchequer is really ludicrous?

Mike Nesbitt

If you are prepared to do something none of the delegates to our conference did on Saturday, which is to take my pen and say you will financially underwrite and guarantee that no farmer in Northern Ireland was going to lose out in the event of Brexit, that no community worker is going to lose out and that no voluntary sector organisation is going to close because of Brexit, I think that would be a very telling intervention.

Ian Paisley

In terms of farming, I would certainly quote the Secretary of State at the weekend who indicated that she believed farm subsidies would not only continue but improve on a Brexit.

Mike Nesbitt

That is a belief. We are looking for certainties.

Ian Paisley

Certainties? Can you give me any certainty in politics? Is your silence no?

Mike Nesbitt

There is going to be a referendum on 23 June; there is a certainty.

Ian Paisley

No certainty in anything political.

Michael McGimpsey

No, I do not think that is true. I heard Theresa saying farm subsidies would go up. It surprised me because as a member of the Stormont House talks, Ian, there was not a halfpenny in her purse in those days, not a penny Northern Ireland is getting more than it needs, Northern Ireland is getting more than it should, and so on. Now suddenly there is extra money available. The question is: how much? Where is it coming from? Who is paying it? What we have now is the certainty of the money coming in from Europe, the single farm payment, around 300 million per annum. Our farmers could not live without that. You are offering or you are implying that not only is that going to be covered but we are going to get a bit more, so that is interesting. I think lots of people would like to know where that money is coming from and how much.

Ian Paisley

A very basic calculation would be that if there is £9 billion deficit that the British Government would automatically get back, under the Barnett formula alone we would get almost double what we get from Europe at the present time under the Barnett formula. We would be walking away with £600 million beneficiary alone.

Michael McGimpsey

That will be halved—

Ian Paisley

The Northern Ireland Executive obviously would then determine how that money is—

Michael McGimpsey

I do not agree with those figures there, the £9 billion.

Ian Paisley

Nine billion. That is how much extra we pay in and do not get back.

Michael McGimpsey

Our contribution is 18.5. Our rebate is 5, which takes us down to 13.5 and we get, I think, 4 automatically from Europe as we are going, so yes, we are around about 9. At 3%, there is 270 million.

Ian Paisley

No, I think you will find that the independent figures that we have certainly seen and which have been put in front of us are considerably more than that.

Michael McGimpsey

I am going by Barnett, which is we are operating at 3%; 3% of the population so we get 3% of Barnett.

Ian Paisley

Michael, in your answer you said that CAP had been very good for Northern Ireland. Do you believe the same for CFP?

Michael McGimpsey

I am not aware of CFP—

Ian Paisley

The common fisheries policy? Michael McGimpsey—the common fisheries policy. I think you could get an argument from the fishermen that they would say no, it is not. They would be unhappy.

Ian Paisley

A disaster that has put 89% of fishing businesses out.

Michael McGimpsey

Well, I do know in Portavogie, which is my area or at least I live close to it, they are down by two-thirds the number of fishing boats. They are down from about 34 to I think about 10 or 12.

Ian Paisley

Pretty disastrous, and if you want more of the same just remain, is that really what you are telling us?

Michael McGimpsey

What I am saying to you, Ian, is, yes, but then again it is up to the local government or up to the UK when you are seeing that sort of impact to look to alleviate the impact, look to create jobs in areas like that to try to deal with that. I know there are funding streams coming into the Northern Ireland Executive to do exactly that. I could not tell you how many jobs Invest Northern Ireland has created in Portavogie over the last 10 years or in Kilkeel. I do agree that the fishing industry has suffered severely. I understand that that is as a result of the need to conserve fishing stocks. That will be done by a directive, I presume signed off by UK Ministers. The actual details I am not sure, but if you are in the Government, you have an issue and your people are losing—for example, your fishermen—then it is the responsibility of the Government to come back with proposals that are going to address that, whether it is investment for jobs, jobs training, and so on.

Ian Paisley

Mike, you have indicated that you are a good Unionist and to put your fingerprints to this would damage the union because Nicola Sturgeon says if the vote goes the wrong way she is going to have another referendum. Do you not think it is rather peculiar that you are relying on Nicola Sturgeon and Martin McGuinness who are going to vote to remain to protect the union?

Michael McGimpsey

I am going to vote to remain too, and the reason I am doing that is because I am a Unionist and I believe in the UK. I also believe that Northern Ireland cannot exist outside the UK, but I am worried about what is going to happen to the UK as a result of this push. Say, for example, we do get Brexit and the UK leaves Europe, that is a game changer as far as Scotland is concerned and as far as the conditions for Scotland’s referendum and Scotland will—

Ian Paisley

Do you not think it is rather peculiar that you are really doing this—

Michael McGimpsey

I am answering your question, Ian. Ian Paisley—to protect Nicola’s position in this respect?

Michael McGimpsey

I think the Brexit issue strengthens her position because it gives her another referendum. I worked with Nicola for four years when she was the Minister of Health and I was Minister of Health in Northern Ireland, and I have to say I said to my colleagues at the time it is lucky it is Alex Salmond who is leading them and not Nicola because things would be a lot tighter. I think you are looking at a strong possibility of another referendum and there is also a likelihood that she will win it.

Ian Paisley

There are no certainties.

Michael McGimpsey

If you will just let me finish the answer, Mr Paisley. As far as Northern Ireland is concerned, we are looking with the Irish Republic. Our trade with the Irish Republic is £2 billion per annum and rising and this is in an economy that is less than £30 billion GDP. We also then across the water have Scotland and, like you, where I live when I go to the hill behind my house I can see Scotland and that is how close Scotland is. The concern I have is Scotland leaving the kingdom, because Scotland can do it. If they leave the kingdom, Northern Ireland is sandwiched, in effect, ironically, us outside the pale. You have the Irish Republic inside the pale and you have Scotland inside the pale. Where will that leave Northern Ireland as an extended part of the UK, dependent? Yes, finances direct that we will go with the UK, but—

Chair

Sorry, we are almost out of time. Last question, Danny.

Danny Kinahan

I am really looking for a comment. I am very pleased to see you here, of course. The economists: we heard that Graham Gudgin was for leaving but there were two other economists there at the time. Their comment when we discussed it was the trade deals, how long would it take to get the trade deals that we exist in today still in place, and I think the answer became clear: five to 10 years. That is one angle I would like you to comment on. The other was an Australian Lady Member of the Lords at a meeting I was at the other day said that when we joined the EU, the antipodes countries were pretty fed up with what we were doing and they thought, “If you think you are going to leave and come back in and trade with us, you can think twice.” I wonder what you have heard from businesses and how you feel about both those two comments.

Mike Nesbitt

I think the question of how long it would take to put into place trade agreements is a good one. Five to 10 years seems to be the going rate there. On your second point, I think people trade because it is in their benefit and I am not persuaded that somebody is going to cut off their nose to spite their face just because somebody did something to them a long, long time ago. I think if there is benefit in trade people will trade. Chairman, if I may, there was something that Mr Paisley said I would like to return to. I think his point is very well made about the CFP, and on Saturday one of the contributors at our party executive was a fisherman. He made the point that at one point he and his two sons had a boat each and because of the common fisheries policy three has become none. The two sons have had to diversify to find a way to put bread on the table. I say that because we are entirely conscious that Europe, the European Union, is not a 100% good thing for the people of Northern Ireland or the United Kingdom and our decision was an on-balance one.

Michael McGimpsey

I would say as far as trade is concerned, one of the best indicators for trade is foreign direct investment. The UK benefits roughly about a billion a year in foreign direct investment. Half of that is coming from the EU, roughly a quarter from the US and a quarter then from other countries. It gives you an indication of, again, job creation coming out of direct investment coming out of Europe. How is that going to be affected?

Mr Evans

Michael, the trade deficit between Germany and the United Kingdom is £27 billon. At what stage do you think the Germans are going to cut their noses off their faces just to spite the United Kingdom?

Michael McGimpsey

I think that what they will be looking for are jobs and finances in Germany and, yes, they are making a living. Are you telling me that, immediately you walk out, that trade is going to be threatened or that trade is not going to be threatened? I think you do not know. This is the unknown and it is because it is an unknown and you are asking us to take a jump from the known into the unknown. I can give you very good reasons in terms of the cash and the money why you have to be seriously careful—

Mr Evans

If I have £27 billion in my bank account, I know what I know and that is: Germany is doing rather well out of trade between the UK and Germany. I would want more of that. I would not say no to trade with the UK.

Michael McGimpsey

Europe is putting in half a trillion a year in foreign direct investment and I think that is a good deal, even allowing for the £27 billion.

Chair

Kate, last question. It will have to be the last one.

Kate Hoey

I slightly detect, and I am quite pleased about it, a slight nuance of difference between our two witnesses and I think that is good. I think one of the good things, would you agree with me, about this coming referendum is that it is going to get people from different political parties having to work together who have very different views. I was interested that you have given your party complete freedom to campaign as well as vote. Am I right?

Mike Nesbitt

Yes.

Kate Hoey

I am disappointed at the general feeling of lack of confidence that you have, not just in the UK to deal with what would happen if we left, but about Northern Ireland itself and the Northern Ireland politicians, to be able to put a strong enough case to ensure that if we were to leave the EU, that substantial amounts of the money we are saving would still be coming to Northern Ireland. Is it a feeling that you do not feel confident as unionists that you could get the British Government of whatever political hue to support Northern Ireland?

Mike Nesbitt

I do not see it as a question of confidence. I see it as a question of the realpolitik of the political framework, the political map of the United Kingdom. I also think that certainly as a country and as a United Kingdom we will continue to survive whether we are in or out, but does anybody really think that if we come out the remaining 27 member states are going to sit around the table and say, “You know what, we had better give the UK better trading arrangements than we give ourselves”?

Kate Hoey

But you are aware that we trade less and less every year with the EU and we are trading far more with other parts of the world?

Mike Nesbitt

Yes.

Kate Hoey

That will not stop.

Mike Nesbitt

That is a current position. That can change. It is a 500 million market in terms of people that we sell to, buy from.

Kate Hoey

Your attitude really seems to be—am I right in summing it up?—there is too much uncertainty; we do not like what we have; we think we can reform it but we know deep down we cannot; however, we are not prepared to take the leap of faith in the country being an independent country.

Mike Nesbitt

No, I would say I think that your first summary is correct. There is a huge amount of uncertainty should we come out, but I am confident that the negotiations—or, sorry, that the reform, not the negotiations, by the UK can continue. It is not just the UK that is now thinking about reform. There are other elements within the 27 other members who are now saying, “Prime Minister Cameron is on to something and let’s look at it.”

Kate Hoey

You really think there could be fundamental reform of the European Union the way it is currently constructed?

Mike Nesbitt

I think there can be further reform. I think there will be a further return to the founding principle of free trade rather than political union.

Chair

Okay. We have slightly gone over time but thank you very much for a useful session.

Mike Nesbitt

Thank you.

Chair

Thank you very much for joining us. We will move on to the next session now. Examination of Witnesses

Witnesses

Declan Kearney, National Chairperson, Sinn Féin, Paul Maskey MP, Sinn Féin, and Megan Fearon MLA, Sinn Féin, gave evidence.

Chair

We will move straight on. Thank you very much for joining us. I understand you would like to make an opening statement to kick us off.

Declan Kearney

Yes.

Chair

Yes, just a brief one, please.

Declan Kearney

Thank you for having us this afternoon. You are all very welcome. Fáilte go hÉirinn. Sinn Féin believes that this island place is in Europe and that the local region place is also in Europe. It represents for us a combined market of 500 million citizens for our exports. Membership, in our view, of the EU trading bloc also gives us access to Asian and other global markets as a stepping point. Brexit would be opposite to the interests of local people in the north. The combined financial loss of EU investment subsidies, funds, transfers to the north of Ireland and the southern border counties over the next four years arising from a possible Brexit could be in the region of £3.5 billion. In our view, Brexit would result in a myriad of serious and far-reaching consequences and they would include a number of factors: the prospect of reinforced partition and a hardening of the division between north and south with the potential knock-on effect for customs checkpoints, trading tariffs and adverse knock-on effects for all island economic activity. It would involve the loss of EU structural funding, which has been central to small-medium enterprise development community regeneration here in the north and government programmes. Thirdly, there would be untold damage to the agroeconomy and the potential loss of common agricultural policy, single farm payments and similar financial supports for the fishing industry. Fourthly, the undermining of the north as a region that would be attractive to foreign direct investment. It is worth noting that since 2006 the local Executive has successfully secured and promoted 27,000 inward investment jobs. That is as a direct result of our relationship with the European Union. Most of that employment has come from North America. Then parallel with that, there has been a secured plan of investment of £3.25 billion. Lastly, there would be negative impact, in our view, upon local business and the potential for growing the private sector and promoting enterprise and growth. We have estimated that during the period between 2007 and 2013, approximately 10% of the north’s GDP was estimated to be reliant on EU funding and transfers. There is a view, there is a narrative, that a Brexit would be in the interests of the north. Some have said that the Brexit position and our membership is a net cost. We do not accept that view. We believe we are net beneficiaries of our relationship with the European Union. From 1995 onwards to the present moment in time, the six counties and the border counties here received €5.64 billion in structural and PEACE fund contributions. That does not include social fund payments and transfers. The fact is that this British Conservative Government has already reduced the north’s block grant by hundreds of billions of pounds. When I asked Theresa Villiers recently would the Tory Government be agreeable to replace funding that would be lost to the north as a direct result of Brexit, she refused to answer. Of course since then, Theresa—

Kate Hoey

Sorry, Mr Kearney, you keep referring to “the north”. You mean Northern Ireland or in Donegal? Donegal is the north to me.

Chair

Order.

Declan Kearney

Since then, Theresa Villiers has obviously come out and declared her own interest as a leading pro-Brexit campaigner. We believe that the fate of the six counties matters little to those who would promote a Brexit agenda. The exit agenda is entirely bound up with the internal management of political and ideological tensions within the British Conservative Party, and it is motivated by a Little Englander perspective, and it is driven by isolationist thinking. We believe that there is much within the European Union that is imperfect. Sinn Féin wants to see a greater primacy and emphasis placed upon growing the social Europe agenda. Europe has been very important in terms of workers’ rights, gender equality, democratic and human rights. It is important to register, as I conclude, Chair, that the European Union has played a very central role in the development of our peace process here. It has been a key support for our political institutions and the rights that have been defined in the context of the European experience have directly influenced the character and architecture of the Good Friday agreement. Support for remaining within the EU is widespread across our society. It is in the interests of all sections and sectors of northern society and it is in Ireland’s national interests. The Brexit agenda should be opposed by a broad-based political and civil platform by making the positive case for EU membership in terms of co-operation, solidarity, economic growth and prosperity. Thank you.

Chair

Thank you for your statement. Correct me if I am wrong—and I may be wrong—has it not been Sinn Féin’s position, for example, in the Republic of Ireland on a couple of occasions to oppose the new treaties that were brought forward? Has that been your position?

Declan Kearney

Yes.

Chair

Is this just one step too far, as far as you see? Why do you have a different position now to then?

Declan Kearney

Sinn Féin’s consistent position has been one of political engagement. As I indicated in my earlier remarks, we have identified significant imperfections within the operation and the governance of the European Union, hence our opposition to treaties that have been brought forward. The reality is that those treaties have passed. Were Sinn Féin to move into Government, then we would seek renegotiation of those treaties in those circumstances, but all of that is entirely consistent with the position that we have strategically, politically and economically. This region and this island’s place is in Europe. We will continue to benefit and prosper from our relationship within the European Union. To be removed from the European Union, in our view, would be to all our disadvantage.

Lady Hermon

I am very grateful indeed that once again Sinn Féin has agreed to come and give evidence before a Westminster Select Committee. I do appreciate that. Mr Maskey, you do not take your seat at Westminster. You have three colleagues, Sinn Féin MPs, who do not take their seats. Despite the fact you do not take your seats—I am curious, because I just do not know the answer to this—do you meet with the Prime Minister? Does he invite you into Downing Street and discuss his negotiations or renegotiations of the relationship with the EU?

Paul Maskey

I personally have not met the British Prime Minister, but I know my party colleagues have and Martin McGuinness has on a number of occasions. I think that was probably one of the problems of the last term, that Martin McGuinness had met President Obama more often than he had met David Cameron, so that shows you the extent of it. But we use our posts very carefully and very strategically, whether that be an MP, MLA, TD or an MEP, for that matter. We will go and meet with whoever we need to meet with to ensure our lobbying and the strength of our party is that we will take that forward very strategically. That is what we do and that is what we have always done.

Lady Hermon

I find that reply very odd, because of course it sort of contradicts what Mr Kearney has very definitely put on the agenda, and that is how pro-Europe Sinn Féin is. Therefore, in the negotiations with Europe before David Cameron signed off the deal, I would have thought and I would have expected Sinn Féin MPs to have demanded a meeting to put forward Sinn Féin’s views.

Paul Maskey

Collectively we do, as a party. We do not operate in silos like other parties do, so we do it very strategically, as I said, through my comments there. That will be through Martin McGuinness’s officers, the Deputy First Minister here, Martina Anderson, as our MP here in the north, or any of our other active representatives right across this end. We will do that on a strategic basis and that is how we operate as a party, because that is where our strength is. We do not need to do that as individuals. We do not have the egos for ourselves.

Lady Hermon

I am not in any party, so I cannot—

Paul Maskey

I appreciate that.

Lady Hermon

Could you tell the Committee how many meetings your senior leadership—the Deputy First Minister and, indeed, the leader of your party—have had with the Prime Minister over this issue, since Sinn Féin’s views are very strong on continued membership? How many meetings have you had with the Prime Minister to put on the record your support for continued membership of the EU?

Paul Maskey

David Cameron will know quite well our party’s position on Brexit and on many other issues, because obviously there has been meetings in the past and there will be meetings in the future with regards to it. Last week we met, for example, with Jeremy Corbyn.

Lady Hermon

He is not the Prime Minister. He is definitely not the Prime Minister.

Paul Maskey

But what I am saying to you is that we will do a wide range of meetings, including leaders of other parties, right across these islands and we will do that constantly to put our concerns and our fears, that if, for example, the Brexit becomes a reality we have massive concerns, as our party chairperson has just read out.

Lady Hermon

Yes. Were you surprised that Theresa Villiers, the Secretary of State, remained in post, having such strong views about coming out of the EU? Were you surprised by that? Have you conveyed your views about her stance and her continued role as the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland? Has that been expressed by Sinn Féin to the Secretary of State?

Declan Kearney

Yes, it has, directly.

Lady Hermon

Who would have conveyed that message among the leadership?

Declan Kearney

Martin McGuinness.

Lady Hermon

Are you able to tell us her response?

Declan Kearney

Her position is that she remains the Secretary of State for as long as the British Government continue to keep her in that position, but I have had direct engagement myself in the public arena with Theresa Villiers on this issue. I have asked her does she consider that the prospect of a Brexit would be in the interests of people in the north. She fudged that question and refused to answer. I then asked her would her Government commit to ensure that the level of subsidies, payments, grants and transfers that would be lost to the north as a result of a Brexit would in fact then be underpinned with additional funding from the British Government and she refused to answer that question also. Subsequently then she declared her own hand as someone who was anti-Europe and in favour of the Brexit campaign.

Lady Hermon

You may have noticed a few weeks ago in the Belfast Telegraph that Malachi O’Doherty had a very interesting article where he talked about the Belfast agreement, the Good Friday agreement, and the guarantee of the identity of those who are nationalists, those who are republicans within what you what you would describe as the Good Friday agreement and I would describe as the Belfast agreement, but it is the same agreement. The main point of his very well-constructed article, I have to say, was he felt that if the UK was to vote to come out of the EU in the referendum, the nationalists and the republicans would find their identity undermined, as guaranteed to them on how they interpret the Belfast agreement. Is that an accurate reflection of the views within the republican community?

Paul Maskey

Yes, and there is a lot of concern out there with regards to that. I suppose one of the benefits of being an abstentious MP is that you get quite a lot of time to spend in your own constituency, to meet with your base and to talk with people.

Lady Hermon

Yes, which is what I want you to reflect to the Committee.

Paul Maskey

That is what I am doing. I think it is very important there that you are taking your concerns on board. I think our party were the first party here in the north that held a media conference and brought many stakeholders from different backgrounds together. Martina Anderson hosted that at the Balmoral Hotel many weeks ago. It was well attended, and I was listening to concerns and views of industry, the community, business people, and our farming community was there. I obviously set out our stall but also listened to the views of many people. Those views that we have listened to over the years are telling us that it would be wrong to pull out of Europe and I think that is a big, major concern. There is a concern there and we will take that and we will listen and talk and debate with people. We put our own views on the table as well and I think that is how we come up with our own decisions.

Lady Hermon

Are you are talking about a cross-section of age and gender of the people who attended this meeting? Are old and young and men and women equally very agitated or interested in this?

Paul Maskey

Absolutely. Yes, there was a wide range of people. The hotel was absolutely jam-packed. As I said, there was a wide range of people: male, female, business community, community sector, right across the farming community as well, all in attendance, all on the same side of us on this argument. I think that we certainly came away from that meeting that particular day saying, “We are right.”

Lady Hermon

Came away from the meeting saying that Sinn Féin’s view was staying?

Paul Maskey

What we are facing on the Brexit issue, yes.

Mr Evans

Good afternoon. When you look at the deal that David Cameron came back from Brussels with, how do you judge it?

Declan Kearney

In our view, David Cameron’s approach to negotiating new terms with Europe have more to do with how he manages and massages the tensions within his own party as opposed to attempting to enhance the social Europe agenda, which is clearly something we would advocate strongly in terms of European reform. In the final analysis, the fact that David Cameron is now going to argue on 23 June to remain in Europe will be done from a different perspective than Sinn Féin will argue or indeed perhaps the Ulster Unionists will argue, the SDLP, the Alliance Party here in the north, or other sectors and sections of our community here on the island. In that sense, David Cameron will seek to get a deal to try to ensure that he carries the majority of his own party with him, but in political and strategic terms David Cameron’s agenda is not our agenda in relation to remaining in Europe.

Mr Evans

As far as the deal is concerned, do you think that the deal that has been achieved, irrespective of what you have just said, is in the best interests of the people of Northern Ireland?

Declan Kearney

The best interests of the people in the north are going to be served on the basis of ensuring that we continue to enjoy the access to the European funding that is currently available to the trading routes, the export opportunities, the manner in which we are networked into that huge trading block, 500 million citizens, and the jumping point that that gives us to access further export and trading opportunities in the global economy. That is the perspective that we bring to it. I am not going to assess the benefits of our remaining in Europe on the basis of what David Cameron has managed to secure from a sectional party point of view.

Mr Evans

Okay, that is fair enough. As far as trade is concerned, and I guess it gets to the root of Project Fear, do you consider it even the remotest possibility that if Germany were to spite the United Kingdom for leaving the European Union, if the British people choose Brexit, that they would jeopardise the trade advantage that they have with the United Kingdom of £27 billion?

Declan Kearney

The other side of a Brexit throws up so many uncertainties that I think it is impossible to try to gainsay what the net consequence would be, either in terms of maintaining diplomatic relationships, economic relationships, what would be the character of Britain’s relationship with the rest of the single market by stepping outside the European Union. I think in many respects all bets are off if a Brexit occurs. Then we are into the land and the territory of the unknown.

Mr Evans

Yes, but don’t you think that Mercedes are going to be the first to knock at the door of Angela Merkel and say, “Chancellor, you had better make absolutely certain we get access to the British market. They buy far more of our cars than we buy of theirs”?

Declan Kearney

Repeat your point, sorry.

Mr Evans

It is in the interests of Germany, quite frankly. Are they going to jeopardise hundreds of thousands of jobs in Germany that are dependent on having free trade with the United Kingdom?

Declan Kearney

One would assume not, given the significance of the Germany economy within the continent of Europe. It is the most successful and healthy economy at this particular point in time, so the German Government will make their own decisions on the basis of what emerges on the other side of this referendum.

Mr Evans

Finally, we have had two full weeks of the referendum campaign, if I can call it that. How are you judging it so far?

Declan Kearney

I think there are two things going on. There is the debate in Britain and then a significant and developing debate here in the north and in fact right across the island. The debate in Britain has clearly given a significant platform to a Brexit campaign, which seems to be quite fractured. There are many different interests at play in relation to that. I think the jury is out as to whether they will successfully get their act together and develop a more cohesive campaign to win the argument. In terms of the campaign to remain in Britain—and this is an assessment I am making from this side of the Irish Sea—the traction appears to be in terms of the vocal nature of the campaign to be with those who are arguing for an out position, but the counterweight to that is that I think the argument for remaining is much more coherent, albeit that I do not think that it has developed the same momentum as the campaign at this particular point in time. Here in the north we have seen the development of quite a significant amount of debate and discussion on this issue in the course of the last period of weeks. Many citizens are engaged with the issue. For example, I canvassed on Saturday, just last weekend, and I raised the issue of the referendum on every door that I visited. There was not a home that I visited that did not indicate an awareness of the referendum and the significance of that for their place. These are people who are unemployed, employed, small business people and others. The intriguing aspect of the debate on the other side of the Irish Sea I think is how it will develop in the context of Scotland’s relationship with the rest of the British state and I detect a very significant momentum here in the north in support of remaining in Europe in opposition to the demand for Brexit. There are many indications that there is a similar momentum in favour of remaining in Europe in Scotland. While my own contacts with people in Wales would not be to the same degree, either in political or civic terms, as in Scotland, there are clear indications that there is a growing sentiment, an existing sentiment, within Wales that would be in favour of remaining in Europe. I think that throws up a very intriguing prospect that the citizens of the north, Scotland and Wales would in fact vote in favour of remaining in Europe. Then depending on what happens in England, the potential for the decisive influence over remain or leave resting with the majority, combined of the north, Scotland and Wales, with clearly a significant vote in favour of remaining in England, but I am not in a position to estimate whether the vote in England will be in favour of or against staying in Europe.

Mr Evans

I cannot help you.

Gavin Robinson

Thank you all for attending this afternoon. When you mentioned that the Deputy First Minister had raised his concern with the Secretary of State about her position on Brexit, was that because you do not believe the Secretary of State is entitled to a view or you just do not like her view?

Declan Kearney

No, it is a matter of public policy. If the greater number of citizens and the larger number of political parties here in the north have a position in favour of remaining in Europe and the person appointed to represent the interests of the British Government here in the north has a position that runs counter to the greater number of citizens and political parties who represent those citizens here in the north, clearly there is a contradiction. It is not about the person or the person’s individual political views. Theresa Villiers is clearly entitled to have whatever view she wishes to express on this matter, but nominally her responsibility as Secretary of State for the North is to represent the interests of citizens in this part of the island. When I put the question to her on David Dimbleby’s “Question Time” programme, did she consider that a Brexit would be in the net interests of people in the north of Ireland, she failed to answer that question.

Gavin Robinson

Yes, but now that she has asserted her position, then we can assume she does believe it is in the interests of the people of Northern Ireland. Is she entitled to have that view?

Declan Kearney

Of course she is entitled to have that view, but when it comes—

Gavin Robinson

But is she not entitled to have that view without fear of criticism or calls for resignation, and that she is equally as entitled to have that view as the Shadow Secretary of State for Northern Ireland is in having an alternative?

Declan Kearney

She is entirely valid to have whatever view she wishes. However, she is tasked with a governmental responsibility, and if the Government responsibility is in inherent contradiction with what is in fact in the interests of people here in the north, then of course she is entitled to be criticised.

Gavin Robinson

It was in the interests of the people of Northern Ireland that NCA operated, for example, but despite the overwhelming majority of the views of people in Northern Ireland and political parties, you took an alternative view. Is she right in those circumstances?

Declan Kearney

I think you are confusing apples and oranges, Gavin, and the bottom line is: is she entitled to have the position that she has? Yes, democratically she is entitled to subscribe to that view.

Gavin Robinson

Was it wrong to ask her to resign?

Declan Kearney

No, of course it was not. It was perfectly appropriate to raise the question as to whether the British Government representative here in the north of Ireland was taking a position that was counter to the interests of people here, entirely appropriate to raise that issue.

Gavin Robinson

Albeit there is a different view as to what is in the best interests of Northern Ireland?

Declan Kearney

Absolutely, which is why I qualified my remarks by pointing out that now, with the exception of your own political party and perhaps some other extreme unionist parties, some small extreme unionist parties, most the political parties here in the north who represent citizens in this part of the island have said, “We believe collectively our position is to remain in Europe.”

Gavin Robinson

Were you wrong to ask her to resign?

Declan Kearney

No. I have already explained that.

Gavin Robinson

Do you believe that she should still or have you qualified that?

Declan Kearney

At the end of the day, that is going to be a matter for the British Government. They will have to sort that out and that becomes another one of those tensions and contradictions that David Cameron, God love him, has to sort out within his own party.

Chair

How you would view it if there is a vote for Brexit though? Isn’t it rather the other way around then and wouldn’t Ministers rather struggle to stay in office under those circumstances?

Declan Kearney

Just repeat your question, Laurence.

Chair

If there is a vote to leave, doesn’t it put those Ministers who campaign so strongly to stay in in a difficult position? Doesn’t the whole thing turn around then?

Declan Kearney

In the British Cabinet? Again, these are difficulties for the British Government to resolve for themselves and I would not like to be in David Cameron’s shoes at this particular point in time.

Dr McDonnell

There is a lot of very treacherous people.

Danny Kinahan

Very good to hear your point of view. What do you feel of the Project Fear? It does seem that we have two sides and each in fear of each other rather than getting to the facts. Do you think we can get the facts more centre?

Declan Kearney

I think it is essential that we do. The facts are there to be explained if the space can be created in order to have a clear-sighted and considered public debate. That, in Sinn Féin’s view, is now what needs to be facilitated. We have a date, there is a focus, there is an increased public consciousness around this issue, and what we need to do is ensure that the public discourse is informed. Project Fear, either from a Brexit perspective or an anti-Brexit perspective, is no aid to reasoned public debate.

Danny Kinahan

Thank you, and I agree entirely. When you were presenting your case at the beginning, you spoke of resources going to the social and to the communities and others. Would you like to expand on the figures on that, of what we get from Europe?

Paul Maskey

Over the last 21 years with regard to the European monies that have come, the PEACE monies, I think it has been somewhere in the region of over £5.5 billion. I think it has been a very substantial amount of money that has come in. Could you have done with more? You could always do with more, but if I look at the projects that have been done, and the building, for example, in Gavin’s own constituency, I think it is a very positive step in the right direction for east Belfast, but also linked with that change on the rest of it, because a lot of PEACE building has been done. I look at even some of the urban areas with regards to the number of community initiatives that have been taken forward over the last 20 years, which have been second to none and have helped massively with regard to the peace process. I look at some issues, for example, with loyalist ex-prisoners, who are doing tours across the city of Belfast, republican ex-prisoners who are also doing tours for tourists who are coming into their city. It is massive, and that is about people working with each other, people talking to each other. Part of those tours is that a loyalist ex-prisoner could hand the tour over to a republican ex-prisoner in Belfast, and I think that is a massive sign of hope in looking to the future. I was there in all the peace-building and I suppose I was quite partial to the money that was coming for that. I was making sure that people were telling their own stories and telling them quite positively, moving them forward into the future in a much more positive manner, bringing young people along. When I look at the studies right across the north with regards to the amount of money that has come in, about the positive projects that have been delivered and are still being delivered to this day, we are benefiting massively from it still to this day for even some of the projects that took place 20 years ago. Those relationships have been built up and sustained and I think it is about sustaining the peace process. That is the importance of the some of the PEACE dividends—the PEACE initiative that came from Europe.

Danny Kinahan

Do you think we can rely on more funding into the future from Europe?

Paul Maskey

I would like to think we could and I would like to think collectively we can go to Europe together. We have three MEPs here from the north alone, and collectively they have worked very well on arguing and lobbying for additional resources and additional monies for this part of the world. I think they have done that successfully and I have no reason to doubt they would continue to do that in future.

Lady Hermon

Yes, we have not heard your voice.

Megan Fearon

I know. I was going to say that, in addition to the social funds that we have benefited from, when you look at the common agricultural policy and the single farm payments, the reality is that if we were not to receive those our agricultural industry would be in the red, farm businesses would not survive and it would lead to massive job losses. In terms of trade, in that arena as well, the worst-case scenario is that all our produce would be subject to import tariffs. We do not know what the best-case scenario is. One of the difficulties is that there is so much uncertainty around this, but it would definitely devastate our agricultural and the agrifood industry, which has seen substantial growth over the last number of years. We benefit hugely from them and the amount of devastation if we lost them, particularly in light of the area that I represent, which is Armagh. It is a border county, which again is another element of this. To state the glaringly obvious, we share a land border with the rest of Ireland and to a large extent the partition is almost invisible at the minute, but if we were to see that harden and reinforced, it would just create more problems.

Danny Kinahan

Do you see it easier to spend the money that we get from Europe than it is trying to make deals at the top table in Stormont and spend the money there. We have failed to spend half the money we got there? Of the £80 million, we only spent £12 million. Is it easier to spend, despite our system?

Paul Maskey

There is no doubting it, and if you ask many of the community groups out there who have received funds from Europe over the years, they will tell you that there was a lot of bureaucracy with it as well, but they have worked with that and they worked very cleverly on that to reduce some of the red tape that has been coming in. This money has been spent and it is money, in my view, that has been spent very well. With regards to Stormont, I am not sure about the £80 million, I take it that is the social investment fund you are talking about there?

Danny Kinahan

Yes.

Paul Maskey

I know in my own constituency, for example, there is 300 jobs being created through the social investment fund, where the local groups and local steering groups have come together to work their way out on the money. I know in west Belfast we see somewhere in the region of £12.5 million. That is hitting the ground now as we talk and there are already about 300 people who are in employment. There is somewhere in the region of 70% that already have those jobs, so I think things are working in the right direction even for that money to be spent as well.

Danny Kinahan

Do you see exit as threatening the peace process if we pull out?

Paul Maskey

I suppose you always have to try to sustain the peace process. That is part of the workings of the peace initiatives and Europe have also assisted on that. I think one of the things that Europe has done for us is it has opened the doors right across Europe, but it has also opened doors for us right across the world to learn about the peace process and take the peace process forward. If we can do anything to sustain that, then I think it is worth continuing on with it on that basis. Whether it is a threat to it or not, I do not know, but I certainly want to see it as a more progressive step in the right direction.

Ian Paisley

Thank you very much for giving evidence as well. Do you see any formal role for Sinn Féin on the remain campaign?

Declan Kearney

Yes, in the sense that we will lead our own campaign, we will make the positive arguments. We will avoid descending into the negativity of Project Fear and argue in a reasoned way why it is in the interests of every section of our community and every sector within our society across the civic, economic and social spheres. Where the remain campaign locally will benefit from is an increased convergence in and around the positive arguments and it certainly would be an ambition of Sinn Féin that a broad civic and political platform would emerge, making the same arguments in favour of remaining as a counterpoint to the arguments that would be advanced for coming out of Europe. But Sinn Féin does not see itself taking a lead responsibility or taking proprietorship of that type of an initiative. It is much better that it is organic and that many sectors and sections of society come to that position.

Ian Paisley

So you see yourself potentially on the same platform as David Cameron and Mike Nesbitt, maybe even Nicola Sturgeon, making the case to remain?

Declan Kearney

When I answered Gavin’s question earlier on, I made the point that just because David Cameron is now taking Sinn Féin’s position in relation to remaining in Europe does not mean—

Ian Paisley

Not when you say it like that.

Declan Kearney

Well, we were there before remain.

Ian Paisley

I do not think you were.

Declan Kearney

He had definitive discussions with Donald Trump before he could make his mind up. But on a serious point, just because David Cameron is taking the same position as ourselves does not mean that we are arguing that position for the same reasons or from the same perspective.

Ian Paisley

But in principle, if there was a shared platform for remain and you were asked to share the same platform as a British Cabinet Minister, or indeed the Prime Minister, you would share the campaign?

Declan Kearney

I do not see that prospect arising.

Ian Paisley

Neither do I, but I am just asking to hear the words. I will put you out of your misery and say neither do I.

Declan Kearney

Thank you, but what I can say—and I think this would be of net benefit—is the Executives of the north, Wales and Scotland having a much closer dialogue about how we could, as regional governmental structures, bring forward the positive case for remaining in Europe and that is something that is worth exploring.

Ian Paisley

I am going to ask some questions seriously. You have to cut the flannel a wee bit here, and I am just delighted you are comfortable being a unionist with regards to the union, to make a serious point as well. But the EU, which you are going to campaign to remain in, you will accept is an EU that has been reformed by many treaties, whether it is Maastricht, Lisbon or the Single European Act. It has all been reformed by treaty so that the post-Lisbon EU, which we are now in, is an EU that in September 2009 your leader, and also Mary Lou McDonald in the south, said that it is an EU that, under article 25, is going to lead to more military spending; it is an EU that is going to crush small family farms—I am quoting directly from her 15 September 2009 statement—it is an EU that is going to hinder better workers’ pay. You are asking us to vote to remain in a union that is going to have more military spending, crush small family farms and be hard on workers. Why are you doing that? Why did you change your position or why, as some people have said, have you been treacherous?

Declan Kearney

What we have said consistently is that there is a need for a critical engagement with the European Union. It is an economic and political reality. It is part of our lives. Sinn Féin is concerned about the increasingly federalist tendencies that have an influence over the direction of the European Union and the direction towards militarisation and included in that the implications that all of that has for the sovereignty of member states. When you take those facts and set them out as debits alongside what we would consider to be the positives and the credits, then in our view there is more to be gained from remaining in Europe, notwithstanding all of its imperfections and the jeopardies that you have referenced, because it is not all bad and it is not all good. The influence of the European social charter and the significance of that for gender equality issues, human rights, disability rights and democratic rights in our view is in fact a relationship that it is worth fighting for and seeking to build upon and improve.

Ian Paisley

I am just amazed you said, “It is not all bad.” Mary Lou McDonald—again I quote her from 15 September 2009—said this treaty is now, “A bad deal.” That was the headline: “A bad deal”. You are saying it is more a curate’s egg; it is not all bad.

Declan Kearney

No, I am speaking about the European Union, in fairness.

Ian Paisley

That is post-Lisbon EU.

Declan Kearney

Yes, and what I said is because one of the other members raised a question about our opposition to previous treaties. That is correct, Sinn Féin has opposed previous treaties and it will in all likelihood, depending upon what may come down the track, take a position of opposing future treaties. In Government, Sinn Féin would seek reform and amendment of treaties that we felt ran against the interests of working people, of small business people and of member states. So there is no contradiction in taking a position of opposition to treaties that are being brought forward by the European Union and at the same time arguing for this region and this island to remain in Europe in order that we, along with others, can try to mobilise greater influence that would be to greater net benefit economically and socially to the interests of citizens, not just in this part of Europe but across Europe.

Ian Paisley

If you vote to remain, there is not going to be a negotiation, so how are you going to get these negotiations?

Declan Kearney

I said in the event that Sinn Féin found itself in Government in the future—

Ian Paisley

But you are in Government at the moment: you are in Government for Northern Ireland.

Declan Kearney

Yes, we are in Government here in the north. The difficulty with the position that the British Government is taking is that it is out of synch with, in our view, the opinion of the greater number of citizens here in the north of Ireland. It is a contradiction of a British Government, a Little Englander mentality being driven by Tory Party interests, effectively trying to set the destiny for the people of Scotland and for the people here in the North of Ireland and clearly the two are not one.

Ian Paisley

No, you are at the hip of the British Government. You both are campaigning to remain in the Union.

Declan Kearney

For entirely different reasons.

Ian Paisley

It does not matter. You are joined at the hip because the destination is remaining in the Union. Once you vote to remain, there is no further negotiations. It is over. That is the end of the negotiation process.

Declan Kearney

In relation to what David Cameron has been attempting to do, but, you see, David Cameron is the guy that opened this up in response to the demands within his own party and in reaction to the rise of English nationalism in particularly south-east England. That has been the momentum that has led us into—

Ian Paisley

Be fair. Let us be fair to all English parties, the proposal to have a referendum on the manifesto was since at least 2003.

Declan Kearney

Okay. But that is what has taken us into this scenario now, so let us get real about what it is we are dealing with. We are dealing with interests that are operating counter to the greater interests and needs of citizens here. The two are at sixes and sevens. This is apples and oranges. What the English nationalist mind-set in south-east England is looking for in Europe is entirely counter to the greater interests of citizens in Scotland, here in the north or in Wales, and in my view, the greater interests of working people and small business people in England and across the English state itself.

Ian Paisley

Yes, but you are campaigning on the same campaign and you are going to, hopefully in your view, remain. You do accept at that point there is no further negotiation?

Declan Kearney

No, I do not. Of course not. David Cameron opened up a negotiation that was entirely bound up with how he would manage the internal interests of his own party.

Chair

Okay, we will have to move on in a minute. Is that okay?

Nigel Mills

I was just going to come back to this feeling that you are now our second panel of witnesses who have come to the conclusion that people should vote in, even though they do not like it, in the hope it might change at some point in the future. We have one side saying, “Vote in, it will be back to free trade and less political centralisation,” and you are saying, “Vote in, even though it is bad for workers and small businesses.” Is that not a rather strange way of inspiring people into a campaign?

Declan Kearney

If I could turn that around, then I think it is much more important to recognise how much worse we would be with the prospect of a Brexit. I am conscious that the argument needs to be one in a reasoned way, where we do not descend into the negativity of Project Fear one way or the other, but empirically, all of the evidence demonstrates that our interests are not going to be served in a situation where the British state exits from the European Union. That is clear. The difficulty with the pro-Brexit position, and this applies to the north as well as, I think, across the British state, I have yet to hear a coherent or a cogent argument being made by the pro-Brexit position as to why positively, economically, politically there will be gains and credits arising from that position to exit.

Nigel Mills

Avoiding Project Fear, why don’t you just give us your picture of what your ideal EU would look like in 10 years’ time, were we to vote to stay in?

Megan Fearon

I think if you look at what Europe has done for us, speaking as a young person—

Nigel Mills

No, I was thinking in 10 years’ time. This is the future, not having past—

Megan Fearon

I suppose in 10 years’ time, we have a policy of critical engagement with the EU. We have been concerned about the direction of travel to the right, and that is I suppose in response to a number of things that we will not get into, but I think the European Union is an unavoidable arena of political struggle for the oppressed left, if you want to put it that way. So in 10 years’ time, we would like to see a move away from right-wing politics and I suppose the fear from the focus on finance and the financial sector of the economy.

Nigel Mills

So you want even freer borders, you want more social legislation, more employment legislation. Do you want a bigger Europe, Turkey in maybe?

Megan Fearon

No, we want workers to be protected, first and foremost. We want our farmers to be protected and continue to be protected. There is a lot of good stuff that Europe does, but it does need reform.

Nigel Mills

Do you want more central power or devolved to the nation states?

Megan Fearon

I think we would like to have more of a say, because we are in this position now because the British Government are basically in control of our destiny when it comes to this.

Nigel Mills

You want us to sustain a Union that is heading towards a much more centralised single state, but you kind of do not want that. You think it is going more right wing; I think the rest of us would feel it was getting too heavy on regulation and control rather than too light. I am not totally sure that thing you want to stay in is quite the thing that you want to stay in.

Paul Maskey

We can point to the benefits that Europe has delivered to us, the peace process, the PEACE initiatives over the last 21 years. For the people that we do speak to in our own constituencies now, there is a massive fear because we do not know what lies in store. I suppose if, for example, the thought was to leave Europe, there are still no negotiating powers, as Ian alluded to earlier. We could lose all sorts, even negotiating powers as well, so I think at this stage you are better within, or you can make sure that you have all your MEPs and their agents here, for example in the north and Scotland and Wales as well, arguing and standing together and sticking together for a much better outcome for the people of these islands. I think if you are in it then you can certainly win it, but if you are outside it, then you are definitely a loser.

Nigel Mills

It sounds like the argument used by the unionists seeing as the condition of the referendum last year, I never thought I would hear Sinn Féin—

Megan Fearon

One of the concerns that we would have is that the Executive here, due to our limited public expenditure—and we have lack of fiscal independence, which means we can’t raise much of our own finances—would not be able to pick up the tab, it would be taken out of our economy. We estimate that over a four-year period in the event of a withdrawal, our local economy here and some southern border counties would estimate a financial loss to be £2.5 million and there is no way that that tab is going to be picked up by the British Government, especially after cutting the—

Paul Maskey

Nigel, maybe I could ask you a question. The money that comes out of Europe, comes here from Europe, would you argue with David Cameron, for example, that all that money would still need to remain or would the British Government pick up the tab for that? Would they give it here to the north?

Nigel Mills

I would say anyone that currently gets money from the EU should get exactly the same after we have left and they will still have £9 billion more to distribute. That seems a sensible—

Chair

Last question, Kate.

Kate Hoey

Thank you for coming and, while I disagree with your views on this, I am very pleased that you are obviously confident in the Northern Ireland Westminster Parliament Select Committee to come along and, secondly, obviously that you are supportive enough of the British Prime Minister that you are prepared to campaign with him. But just one very quick question. Nearly all the political parties have disagreements within their parties; any democratic political party usually has. Is Sinn Féin adopting the same attitude of other political parties that people can campaign within their party and go out and support Brexit when the party is taking the line or do you have a much more, shall we put it, disciplined approach to your members?

Declan Kearney

That issue hasn’t arisen internally.

Kate Hoey

You have 100% absolutely every single member of Sinn Féin supports staying in the EU.

Declan Kearney

If you allow me to explain it, Minister.

Kate Hoey

I will, yes.

Declan Kearney

Probably going back to last September our party’s Ard Chomhairle, national executive, took a paper that set out the relevant pros and cons in relation to the case for Brexit and we had a very extensive discussion in Dublin. A further paper was commissioned. Of course, at the level of national leadership, some colleagues referenced misgivings about the current state of the European Union and I indicated them myself. We do have significant concerns about various imperfections that impact on how the EU does its business. However, when we took the discussion forward in a very inclusive way we came down on a view that, notwithstanding concerns about the manner in which the EU works—the lack of democracy, issues around the infringement of national sovereignty, increased federalisation, the dangers of militarisation, deregulation and so on—the correct position for the party to assume would be to campaign to remain within the European Union but not on the basis that we felt that what we were remaining within was something that would meet our criteria. That remained then a project of work that had to be taken forward, but it is much better taken forward by remaining within the EU than coming out of the EU. The issue has not, in fact, been raised. It was not raised in any of those national executive meetings as to whether there was a requirement for a free vote or whether it would be anything other than deal with this issue in a collective way. In my opinion, as the chair of the party, there will be a collective, cohesive, coherent campaign taken forward by Sinn Féin and, inevitably, within the party there are different opinions about the level of democracy, the scale of imperfection that we have to contend with within the European Union. But that is the challenge that we all face and that is very much one of the priorities being taken forward by our four MEPs. Sinn Féin is the second largest Irish delegation in the European Parliament from all four Irish constituencies and they are very focused on ensuring that we see a greater primacy in relation to the social European agenda and that those things that have worked for the net benefit of the island and the region continue to work in that direction of travel and that we optimise those benefits.

Kate Hoey

Okay, but any individual Sinn Féin member who feels slightly differently that on balance they would prefer to go out because they don’t think you will get all these things that you want to see and which we would all share with you, will they be disciplined or will they be allowed to comment?

Declan Kearney

The issue hasn’t even been—

Kate Hoey

You don’t have one single Sinn Féin member in the whole of Ireland who is feeling slightly concerned about your position on it?

Declan Kearney

The issue hasn’t been raised at a national executive level.

Kate Hoey

It is a wonderful political party that has no differences.

Declan Kearney

However, I am about to leave here to travel to Drogheda for a national executive meeting at 5.30 pm and given that we now have a date and given that there is a newfound momentum creeping into this campaign and we are only a few months away from referendum day, I have no doubt that there will be further and quite intensive discussion this afternoon.

Kate Hoey

Thank you.

Chair

We will let you get there. We have gone over time.

Lady Hermon

Can I just ask one very small, little question?

Chair

Five seconds, literally five.

Lady Hermon

Will Sinn Féin be fundraising to fight for a yes vote in the EU referendum and, if so, where does Sinn Féin get its funding from?

Declan Kearney

Sinn Féin will be promoting the campaign to the best of—

Lady Hermon

But will you be specifically fundraising for it?

Declan Kearney

I would doubt if we would be fundraising in relation to the referendum. We just fought an election in the 26 counties, we are about to fight an election in the Assembly here in the north for the Assembly on 5 May. For a party organised in an all-island basis, that is a huge pressure to—

Lady Hermon

But you are a very wealthy party. Declan Kearney—try to keep together. But we will run a vigorous, progressive and positive campaign and the Sinn Féin position will be very clearly articulated and visualised.

Lady Hermon

But I want to know where your funding comes from.